In just the second ever Boca Raton Bowl, the No. 24 ranked Temple Owls will get a chance to close out a great season with a bowl win as they face the Rockets down in the Sunshine State.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Toledo Rockets +1
Temple Owls -1
Over/Under 52.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Owls were dubbed the favorites when the lines opened and that remains the case as the spread has grown to -1.5.
The total has also seen some movement, however, its dropped three points down to 49.5 as bettors and oddsmakers alike are expecting this one to be a be a lower scoring affair.
The under has paid out in eight of the Rockets’ last 11 games and five of the Owls’ last seven.
KEY MISMATCH
Both teams have strong defenses which should dominate this game. Toledo ranks No. 24 nationwide with only 21.1 PPG allowed. Temple on the other side is allowing just 19.2 PPG.
While both defenses are strong, it’s the Owls’ defense that’s the most balanced, holding opposing offenses to 202.9 passing yards per game and 126.3 rushing yards.
The Owls’ rushing defense is particularly key against the Rockets’ two-headed monster at the running back position: Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson.
As a team, Toledo’s averaged 213.2 rushing yards per game, the most amongst Mid-American teams. Individually, both backs have at least 870 yards and have combined for 17 touchdowns.
Meanwhile for the Owls, their offense is just average, but the passing game should still have success in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Quarterback P.J. Walker hasn’t been the most accurate passer, but he does have 2,736 passing yards and 19 touchdowns this season while throwing for 873 yards to Robby Anderson, the team’s leading receiver with nearly double the number of receptions as any other receiver on the team.
The Walker-Anderson connection could still find success against a strong Toledo defense as the Rockets’ are far better against the run than against the pass. Toledo ranked No. 12 in the MAC against the pass and No. 106 nationwide.
KEY STAT
.466 – This is the third down conversion percentage for the Rockets this season, ranked No. 16 due to their strong rushing attack.
Temple also has a strong mark at .413, but it’s considerably lower than their counterpart in Tuesday’s bowl game.
Of course, defensively, Temple is good at defending on third down situations, allowing the opposition to convert in just over 31 percent of their chances while Toledo’s defense allows conversions north of 40 percent of the time.
BETTING ANGLE
Temple was in position for a much better bowl game earlier in the season after winning seven straight games, but a rocky 3-3 finish cost them a bid to one of the more premier bowls.
Even with the average finish, the Owls did beat Connecticut and Memphis in their last two regular season games before their conference championship loss to Houston, another ranked team.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Look for the defenses to be the main storyline, but Toledo’s struggles against the pass will be key in allowing Temple to pull out this bowl victory.
Look for Linebacker Tyler Matakevich and company to shut the Rockets’ strong rushing attack down to ultimately open things up for the Owls. With that, Temple will only need a few big passing plays against the Toledo’s porous secondary and a few big plays from running back Jahad Thomas who went for 1,473 total yards and 18 touchdowns in the regular season.
After such a strong start to the season and a poor showing against Houston their last time out, the Owls will be motivated to put up a strong performance to close the season out on a positive note.
Temple 24, Toledo 20
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