Matchup Analysis: National Championship Game, Crimson Tide vs. Tigers

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It’s the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Clemson Tigers in round two as we get a repeat of last year’s National Championship Game except this time, the Tide are even scarier. Nevertheless, both teams are riding high off their respective College Football Playoff victories. Both defenses took care of their respective opponents, but each offense provides new challenges when these two teams collide next week.

Don’t miss the National Championship Game from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 9, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.

CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Clemson +6.5
Alabama -6.5
Over/Under 51.5

When Alabama Has the Ball…

It was all about the Crimson Tide defense and Bo Scarbrough in the Peach Bowl. Scarbrough ran all over the Washington defense. Nick Saban gave Scarbrough long stretches of rest throughout the game otherwise, the score may have been more lopsided than the 24-7 final.

Scarbrough looked unstoppable against a reasonably strong Huskie defense that had devoted plenty of time in prepping for Scarbrough and the rest of the Tide offense. The talented running back ended the game with 180 yards and two scores on 19 carries. Lane Kiffin even turned to Scarbrough on third down deep in the Tides’ own territory. That’s how much confidence he has in him.

It, however, won’t be Kiffin calling the shots in the title game as he’s now been named the head coach of Florida Atlantic, leaving his post as offensive coordinator before the big game. While that certainly impacts the game calling, don’t look for too much of a shift in philosophy on the offensive side of the ball.

The ground game will once again be crucial for Alabama. The Tide ranks No. 11 in rushing yards per game, but the offensive line will have its work cut out for it against a strong Clemson front seven. Nevertheless, with Scarbrough, Damien Harris and Jalen Hurts there are plenty of options to move the ball on the ground.

Speaking of Hurts, look for the true-freshman to play like someone beyond his years in such a big game. That’s what he’s done all season. Of course, with a strong defense and stout running game to help him, it takes plenty of pressure off. Still, Hurts has the arm to deliver when needed and a deep and talented crop of receivers.

Still, it’s important to keep an eye on Hurts. He will likely turn the ball over against Clemson’s defense. He had a fumbled against Washington that could have been a huge momentum swing, but the Tide were able to recover. It’s interesting to note that during the Peach Bowl, there were stretches when the running game took center stage and stretches when the team turned to Hurts. When Hurts’ arm was too much of the focal point that’s when the Washington defense was able to produce some stops. In short, Clemson needs to force Alabama into the air as much as possible, but the Tide will need to sprinkle in the pass within a heavily run driven game plan.

When Clemson Has the Ball…

This section can be summed up on one key sentence: It’s all about DeShaun Watson.

While the Tide came away with the win in last year’s championship game, it was Watson that was the talk of the contest when it came to individual performances. The talented QB used the game to elevate his stock nationwide and was nails. He just didn’t get enough help.

In that game, Watson threw for 405 yards and four touchdowns and added 73 yards on the ground. The other four players to run with the ball combined for 72 yards. That group included Wayne Gallman who led the rest of the group in carries. He’ll need to play a larger role to help Watson who will have to deal with an improved defensive front that now ranks amongst the best units we’ve seen in years.

This defensive line can rush the passer as well as anyone and are experts as stuffing the run behind the line. With the pocket likely to callapse so quickly and the defense to be on him so quickly, he’ll need Gallman to shoulder some of the load both in the running game and as a target to dump the ball off to in a hurry. He’ll also need his receivers to get open quickly. Watson is a great player and can expend plays with his legs, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him.

With that extra pressure, look for Watson to make a few mistakes which could easily turn into interceptions. That’s been a big of a weakness for Watson in an otherwise dominating seasons. He was picked once last year and this year he’s completed 67.3-percent of his passes for 4,173 yards and 38 scores, but has been picked 17 times including twice in the 31-0 win over Ohio State.

The X Factor

If Clemson is to get the upset victory, it’ll have to come at the hands of the Tigers’ defensive line.

The Tigers’ front seven aren’t as stacked as the Tide, but this is still a very strong group with plenty of depth. The unit showed off its muscles in the shutout of Ohio State, becoming the first team to blank the Buckeyes since 1993 and first ever to put up a donut against an Urban Meyers’ team.

Between Christian Wilkins and Carlos Watkins, this team has 21.5 tackles for a loss and each of the team’s top three linebackers have nine tackles for a loss each.

We saw how important Scarbrough was to Alabama against Washington he’s just as big of an X-Factor in this one as the Tide will run a rush heavy offense. If he’s an X-Factor for the Tide, the line is just as big of an X-Factor on the other side of the gridiron.

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