While the Michigan Wolverines and Florida State Seminoles are both storied programs, this will be just the third meeting between these schools and first since 1991 when the Seminoles toppled the Wolverines by 20-points. This time around, the game will feature one of the most elite defenses in the sport in Michigan, giving up just 12.5 PPG, against a strong FSU offense scoring 35.3 PPG.
Don't miss the Capital One Orange Bowl from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 30, 2016. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
Orange Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan -7
Florida State +7
Over/Under 52.5
When Michigan Has the Ball…
This is the weak side of the matchup for both teams. The Wolverines are a defense-first team while the Seminoles are the much stronger offenses. The Florida State defense did improve in the latter part of the season, but still ranks in the middle of the pack against the pass.
Still, this is a Seminoles defense that’s allowed 20-points or fewer in six of its last seven games and 14-or-fewer in each of its last three.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines offense is scoring 41 PPG thanks in part to the defense, but the rushing game is pretty strong. De’Veon Smith leads the way with 810 yards, but it’s the yards per game average that’s particularly impressive. Smith is rushing for 4.9 yards per carry while Chris Evans and Karan Higdon have 7.1 and 6.3 yards per carry respectively.
One key player to watch in this offense for Michigan is wide out Amara Darboh. He’s a big threat on the outside and could help spread the FSU defense, testing the Seminoles’ collection of talented corners and opening up the middle of the field.
The Wolverines struggled down the stretch, losing to of its last three games and it’s not surprise that Darboh was held relatively quiet in those games. Before that, the senior receiver was more heavily involved as the offense was more productive.
Wilton Speight could have some issues getting the ball to Darboh in the Orange Bowl as a result of a strong front seven. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker is dangerous and could give the Wolverines fits. He’s a beast and has 17 tackles for a loss and 15 sacks.
When Florida State Has the Ball…
The Florida State offense is much deeper than Michigan’s offensive unit behind Deondre Francois and Dalvin Cook.
Francois is very efficient under center. He’s thrown for 18 touchdowns with just six interceptions all year with 3,128 yards in the air. All of that is fine, but he’ll have to contend with Jabrill Peppers, Jourdan Lewis and Chris Wormley, all of whom will give Francois and the rest of the FSU offense fits. Lewis, in particular, could play a major role deep, forcing the Seminoles to go the short route, or go to the ground with Dalvin Cook.
Cook is a major workhorse. He’s tallied 18 scores and 1,620 yards on the ground. He’s also second on the team in receptions with 30, serving as a major force in the short passing game, giving Francois a convenient option to dump the ball when he gets too much pressure.
While Francois and Cook are dominant, that’s not going to be enough against an absolutely filthy and stacked defense. Look for Travis Rudolph on the outside. He’s going to have to do his part and beat Lewis here and there to give the Seminoles a legitimate chance. If this turns into a battle of the defenses, even with FSU’s defense stepping up lately, this will be a hard game for the Wolverines to win.
The X Factor
The potential return of Derwin James could have been an X-Factor for the Seminoles, bringing the team closer to Michigan on the defensive end to allow the superior offense to make up the difference. The star safety broke onto the scene last year, leading the team in sacks and tackles and was off to a strong start before a Week 2 injury.
James teased a possible bowl game return on social media, but Jimbo Fisher has since confirmed James will be out for the game.
With that, the X-Factor here will be the Wolverines’ ability to bounce back from a couple late seasons losses that cost them a chance at a better bowl positioning. FSU will be excited to play what’s considered one of the better team’s not in the College Football Playoffs.
It’s hard for any coach to get his team up to play in a bowl game after the difficult finish Michigan experienced. Fortunately for the Wolverines, Harbaugh isn’t your standard coach. He’s been able to turn around this program in short order and he’ll have his team ready to play and ready to shutdown Francois and Cook.
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