In one of the great non-College Football Playoff matchups of this bowl season, the Auburn Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners will meet up for only the second time in the programs’ histories. It’ll be a rematch of the 1972 Sugar Bowl where the Sooners bested the Tigers. If recent trends are any indication the Big 12 champion are in great position to repeat given Auburn’s struggles down the stretch. Some of those struggles, however, can be traced back to injuries that should be behind the Tigers when they take to the field.
Don't miss the Sugar Bowl from Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 2, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
Sugar Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma -3
Auburn +3
Over/Under 63.5
When Auburn Has the Ball…
There’s a quarterback controversy looming at Auburn with Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham likely to be given a chance to earn the starting role over White.
The current Tigers’ QB will have to put that out of his mind for now as White himself is just now coming back from an injury and will need to put all of his attention on the Sooners. White has been the starter for this team the last two years and was the SEC’s most efficient passer this season.
White has completed 65.2-percent of his passes but still has just 1,644 yards and nine touchdown passes to three interceptions. Those number still vastly outshine Jeremy Johnson and John Franklin III who’ve gotten the ball under center in White’s absences.
In general, this is an Auburn team that’s driven by its defense, but hasn’t been too shabby scoring points either, ranking No. 47 in the nation. Still, the passing game has been weak, making the rushing attack the driving offensive force. The Tigers are averaging 278.5 yards per game on the ground, good for sixth in the nation.
All in all, when this offense has been healthy, it’s been able to generate points. White seems healthy which should help improve a lackluster passing attack. The issue at hand, however, is that the Oklahoma defense is much better against the run than the pass. The Tigers need White to have a big game, but he’s thrown for more than a single touchdown just twice all season.
When Oklahoma Has the Ball…
This is when the game will be most interesting. The Sooners are a major offensive force ranked third in the nation in yards per game and points per game, scoring an average of 44.7 points. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ defense is nasty. Auburn should be able to limit the Sooner’s opportunities; they’ll make things difficult for Oklahoma.
Nevertheless, this offense is too good to be shutdown entirely. Baker Mayfield will open the game with 44 touchdowns having thrown for 38 of them. He’s also completing a ridiculous 71.2-percent of his passes. He throws early and often which the Auburn secondary could exploit. Carl Lawson leads this defense from the defensive end position and helps put pressure on the quarterback with nine sacks and 12.5 tackles for a loss. Lawson could get to Mayfield some, but this is a QB that’s been as accurate as anyone and is unlikely to get rattled.
The passing attack is very strong, but there is a bit of a question around Dede Westbrook. He’s caught 16 of Mayfield’s touchdown passes, but is recovering from a concussion. He should be good to go for the game given the long break, but it’s still not a guarantee. If Westbrook plays, he’s likely to be covered by Joshua Holsey who is also dealing with injury, but expected to play in this Sugar Bowl showdown. If anyone has the ability to combat the Sooners playmakers in the passing attack, it’s Auburn behind Holsey and Carlton Davis.
On the ground, this is also one of the better teams in college football. Oklahoma has not one, but two top tier running backs in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Mixon has overshadowed Perine this season, but with release of his assault video there’s some concern about him. Perine, meanwhile, has quietly put together four 100+ yard rushing attacks in the last five games, including two where he topped 200 yards.
The X Factor
This is a game between a great Oklahoma offense and strong Auburn defense. Look for the strengths of each team to counter the strengths of the other, leading to a very close game.
With that, the X-Factor here could be on special teams where kicker Daniel Carlson gives Auburn a nice little edge. He’s so good he’s got a chance to leave school early for the NFL. That’s quite an accomplishment for a kicker.
He’ll help the Tigers win the field position battle which, in a tight game like this figures to be, could make all the difference.
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