If the Memphis Tigers keep winning football games they won’t be the best kept secret in college football. The Tigers and their powder keg offense visit the USF Bulls in an NFL stadium on Friday, which is only fitting because that’s where Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch will be working real soon. The Tigers have won 11 straight games and better not overlook the Bulls with No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels on the schedule in two weeks.
ODDS
Memphis opened as a 12.5-point favorite with the total at 61. The line was wagered down quite a bit to its current -9 while the total spiked to 62. Under coach Willie Taggart the Bulls have been home dogs in AAC play six times and covered just once. Can USF keep pace with the Tigers offensive pace?
KEY MISMATCH
When talking about high-powered offenses in college football, the likes of Baylor, TCU, Houston and USC roll right off the tongue. But Memphis? Yes, folks, the Memphis Tigers are averaging more points than TCU, Houston and USC and quarterback Paxton Lynch has put up Heisman Trophy numbers in leading the explosive offense. The redshirt junior completed 24 of 36 attempts for 412 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Cincinnati. He added another 52 yards rushing, which led the team. Expect to hear Lynch’s name more and more as the season progresses, both from a production and prospect standpoint. Lynch is absolutely willing to test windows and single coverage along the sideline, but Memphis may need to live with a few bad plays each game. However, Lynch has been nearly perfect this season completing 73.5 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions with an impressive 10.9 yards per attempt.
KEY STAT
53.8 – Memphis’ average points per game. The Tigers have scored better than 50 points in a game three times this season and are tied for 3rd in the nation in scoring offense. USF has allowed an average of 34.5 points over it last two games while losing both.
BETTING ANGLE
With a visit from third-ranked Ole Miss on the schedule in two weeks, this game lines up as a big trap for the Memphis Tigers, who are doing all they can to crack the rankings. The Tigers may well be the best kept secret in college football and as long as that doesn’t go to their heads, they should get by a weak USF team. But the possibility of hosting the biggest game in school history against the all-powerful SEC and its baddest team to date is something that has to weigh on the minds of the Memphis kids. South Florida comes off its bye week and a win over the AAC West favorite would help put Bulls in a good spot in the AAC East division. As helter-skelter as the Tigers are on offense, the defense still has some major holes and will cost the team a game or two this season. It’s also likely to keep Memphis from being taken seriously as a top 25 team.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
USF will try and let the air out of the football just to keep Lynch and the Tigers off the field, and the scheme may work against a defense that allowed 752 yards of offense to the Cincinnati Bearcats last week. But the majority of those yards came through the air and the Tigers were burned in the last two games by a pair of pass-happy offenses that skewed Memphis’ defensive numbers. But the D came up big when it had to, stopping Bowling Green two weeks ago to preserve a three-point win and intercepting a Cincinnati pass in the end zone to escape with a victory last week. Offensively Lynch runs the show, spreading the ball out to a group of receivers who all have big play potential, and getting help in the backfield from Doroland Dorceus and Sam Craft. USF did have a week off, so they should at least be rested, but they suffered a bad loss to a bad Maryland team the week before. And that doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in them.
Memphis 42, South Florida 34
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -12.5 in favor of the Memphis Tigers. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 61. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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