High-scoring Western Kentucky went 11-2 and rolled through Conference USA with a 9-0 record including an impressive conference championship win over Southern Miss.
But the South Florida Bulls finished the season with a flurry also and are taking action in the betting market with the nearby site.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Florida Bulls +4
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -4
Over/Under 65
ODDS ANALYSIS
Western Kentucky is down to a 2.5-point favorite, while the total has been bet up to 66.5.
Recall the high-scoring Hilltoppers led last year’s bowl game 49-14 in the fourth quarter before holding off a Central Michigan 2-point conversion for the win but no cover as 3.5-point favorites. Now South Florida is taking some money with fans flocking four hours South to Miami in support of the Bulls.
KEY MISMATCH
Key match-up is ball possession as the Bulls try to control the ball, clock and chains while keeping the high-scoring Hilltoppers offense off the field.
South Florida rushed for 241 yards per game this season to rank No. 12 in the country. Running backs Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers - a Miami native - led the Bulls with a combined 2,150 rushing yards. That includes 43 rushing attempts per game at 5.3 yards per rush; also both top-20 in the country.
The Bulls passed the ball less than all teams in the American Athletic Conference other than Navy, so the Hilltoppers can focus on slowing the running game. Western Kentucky allowed 159 rushing yards per game and held Conference USA’s top rushing team Southern Miss to 159 rushing yards and 14 first downs in the C-USA championship game back on December 5.
That 45-28 Western Kentucky triumph included 521 yards total of offense on 88 plays against the Southern Miss top-ranked C-USA defense that allowed less than 365 yards per game this season.
Western Kentucky possessed CUSA’s most efficient passing offense with senior Brandon Doughty passing for a league-high 353 yards per game and 45 touchdowns in 13 contests. A deep receiving corps is led by Taywon Taylor; one of the country’s most productive receivers who averaged 105 receiving yards per game at 17 yards per catch to go along with 17 touchdowns.
While South Florida did hold the AAC’s top-two passing teams in Memphis and Cincinnati under 30 points, they still allowed over 300 passing yards and Western Kentucky’s explosive aerial attack is stronger.
KEY STAT
Western Kentucky’s defense was No. 2 in the country with 31 takeaways.
Western Kentucky averaged 44 points per game to rank No. 4 in the country and 11.8 yards per point to rank No. 6. The Hilltoppers 7.1 yards per play offense ranked No. 2 in the country.
Western Kentucky’s improved defense allowed 5.4 yards per play which is right at the national average, creating a very strong 1.7 yards per play differential.
BETTING ANGLE
USF is 4-0 in its last four games.
The ‘over’ is 6-1 in Western Kentucky’s last seven games versus a team with a winning record.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
South Florida coach Willie Taggart is building the Bulls into a defensive dominator while taking them to their first bowl since 2010. He’ll try to devise a game plan to shut down the high-scoring Hilltoppers who just so happen to be his alma mater. Taggart was also the head coach at Western Kentucky from 2010-2012.
That will be a very tough task as Doughty is the first college quarterback to have consecutive seasons of 4,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. While the offense gets most of the accolades, it’s the Western Kentucky defense that has delivered some of the most improved performances.
The Bulls finished the season very strong winning four straight games while erupting for over 1,500 yards and 51 points per game in their last three contests. Along with the site advantage in South Florida, the Bulls are getting some support in the betting market. Ball control, tempo and the Bulls ability to maintain possession will be key, but we still see the high-scoring Hilltoppers proving to be too tough.
Western Kentucky 41, South Florida 31
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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The contest between the South Florida Bulls and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will take place Monday, December 21, 2015, at 2:30 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
