Ohio State opened the season atop the AP Top-25 and as 14-point favorites for this game according to the Golden Nugget College Football Game of the Year lines. The Buckeyes are still perched atop both the AP Top-25 and Coaches Poll, but the Spartans are ranked No. 6 as both are undefeated at 8-0.
SEASON TO DATE
Huge expectations got the better of both the Buckeyes and the Spartans—at least for those backing either team against the spread early on.
Michigan State started off dropping its first six games ATS while Ohio State dropped five straight after a 42-24 win over Virginia Tech to open the season. Poor early performances against the spread aside, each has beaten the spread in back-to-back games heading into NCAAF Week 10 and each have also handily won each game played.
For the Buckeyes, their success can be attributed to a strong running game and elite level defense, holding opponents to just 15.1 PPG, the fifth fewest in college football.
The quarterback position is a bit uncertain. Cardale Jones failed to lock the position down after starting the season and J.T. Barrett has found himself in legal trouble. Add quarterback-turned-receiver Braxton Miller to the mix and the team has three QBs that would start for most programs, but they still rank just No. 75 in passing yards per game.
On the ground, however, Ohio State has Ezekiel Elliott who’s rushed for 1,130 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. The trio of Barrett, Miller and Jones add another element on the ground.
On the other side of the field, Michigan State is another team driven by defense, though it’s allowing a touchdown more per game than Ohio State.
Their offense had their biggest game of the year on October 24 when quarterback Connor Cook threw for a season-high 398-yards and four touchdowns. The Spartans have fewer questions under center with Cook getting all the snaps. He’s thrown for 2,060 yards and 17 touchdowns to go along with just two interceptions.
LOOK AHEAD
Between now and November 21, the Buckeyes will host Minnesota and travel to Illinois to take on the Fighting Illini.
Ohio State should be slated as sizeable favorites in both games. They’re 23.5-point chalk against Minnesota.
It seems nearly a lock that the Buckeyes will host Michigan State while still undefeated, though there’s a question about who will be under center. J.T. Barrett had just regained his spot as the starting quarterback when he was arrested for driving under the influence. He was suspended for Saturday’s game against Rutgers.
Keep an eye on the situation under center as the month progresses. Cardale Jones was the starter at the beginning of the year, but he failed to deliver up to expectations. Despite far less playing time, Barrett and Jones both sit with the same number of touchdowns, seven.
For the Spartans to make sure this is still the biggest game of the year come November 21, they’ll need to win their next two games to move to an unblemished 10-0. That’s not too difficult to accomplish, their opponents—Nebraska and Maryland—have combined for just five wins all year.
TRENDS ANALYSIS
Michigan State will be the underdog in Columbus, but it’s already overcome a game on the road as an underdog, beating the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, 27-23 on October 17. They’ve won all three road games this year SU, but that was their only road win ATS.
Ohio State will be at home and while an advantage from an outright perspective, that’s not been such a blessing for those wagering money on the Buckeyes to beat the spread. Ohio State finally won its first home game ATS in its fifth try on October 17, topping Penn State 38-10 as 17.5-point favorites.
PREVIOUS MATCHUPS
Historically, Ohio State has owned the Spartans and that was the case last season when the Buckeyes beat the Spartans and covered the spread by 15.5-points.
In the game, Ohio State won 49-37 with Barrett carrying the team. He started under center, throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns, adding 86 more yards and two scores on the ground. Elliott also ran all over the Spartans for 154 yards and two touchdowns. Both players will be back for another go, but Barrett’s involvement remains a questions for Ohio State moving forward.
Meanwhile, Michigan State’s offense played well, too. Cook played very well in tossing a pair of touchdowns and 358 yards while Jeremy Langford had 137 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Unfortunately, Langford is gone and with him went a good chunk of the Spartan’s ground attack.
Ohio State won in 2014 and has won 22 of 28 head-to-head games dating back to 1975 though Michigan State did score the 34-24 win in 2013, and won the last time the game was in Columbus, beating the Buckeyes 10-7 in 2011 as 3-point underdogs.
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