The Wolverines and Terrapins are entering this game heading in very different directions. Michigan is fresh off a blowout win over BYU while Maryland was blown out by West Virginia. The Terps return home while the Wolverines hit the road, that should even things up a bit, but maybe not enough to make much of a difference.
ODDS
The spread opened with Michigan the 16-point favorites and that line has held. The total, meanwhile, has dropped from 46 to 43 as bettors remain unconvinced that Maryland’s offense can’t stack up against the nation’s better teams.
Last year, Maryland recorded the upset win over Michigan, with the teams playing to a low scorer.
So far this year, the under has paid out in all four Michigan games, but the over is 2-1-1 in Maryland’s first four games.
KEY MISMATCH
The ground is a major mismatch for the Terrapins. The Wolverines struggled in their season opener, but since then they’ve run the ball very well.
Last week, against Brigham Young they ran for 254 yards and three touchdowns. Even with their first game clunker, they’re still averaging 202.3 rushing yards per game and have scored 10 touchdowns.
Individually, De’Veon Smith leads the way in carries and yards. He’s got 206 yards on the year, but has just 3.9 yards per carry. Ty Isaac, on the other hand, has only 18 carries, but has been very explosive with 8.9 yards per carry.
On the other side, Maryland’s rush defense has been very poor. The Terrapins rank No. 100 in the nation, allowing 200.3 rushing yards per game and have already allowed seven rushing touchdowns.
KEY STAT
.787 – This is the Wolverine’s red zone touchdown percentage. The offense has been on point in the red zone, converting 14 opportunities into 11 touchdowns and two field goals.
The running game has been a big part of their success with seven touchdowns. In the air, quarterback Jake Rudock can be pretty solid, too. He’s allowed five interceptions, but three came in Week 1 against Utah.
BETTING ANGLE
The Wolverines are coming off a huge 31-0 victory over BYU, and are ranked No. 22 in the AP Top-25, but questions still persist about them playing away from the “Big House.”
Michigan has played just one road game this year, losing 24-17 to Utah. They’ve dropped six of their last seven true road games and are 2-5 ATS in those games.
I don’t think Michigan is bad enough on the road to lose this game, but Maryland may be able to stay close in this game as a result.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Wolverines keep getting better and better, but they’ll get their first road test since Week 1 on Saturday. I’m a bit concerned about how they’ll perform on the road, but the progressive improvement has been encouraging.
On Maryland’s side of the ball, they’re sticking with quarterback Caleb Rowe despite a four interception game last week. The Terp’s run defense has been porous and their offense hasn’t really helped them stay in any game. Running back Brandon Ross did rush for 150 yards against West Virginia. It was his second 130+ game of the year, but the other two games he averaged 1.3 and 3.8 yards per carry respectively.
I expect Ross to have a strong game, but lack the confidence in Rowe’s ability to help keep Maryland close, even at home.
Michigan 30, Maryland 13
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -16 in favor of the Wolverines. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 46. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the Maryland Terrapins will take place Saturday, October 3, 2015, at 8 p.m. ET at Capital One Field at Byrd Stadium. The contest will be broadcast live on the Big Ten Network.
