The Temple Owls carry a seven game winning streak into play as they get set to collide against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the Military Bowl at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Tuesday. The Owls carry the better record and flashier numbers, but Wake Forest represents a better conference and is team that while beatable, will not beat itself.
Watch this Military Bowl matchup live on Tuesday, December 27, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Temple -13
Wake Forest +13
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
Favored by nearly two touchdowns over Wake Forest, the spread has been pretty steady in support of the Owls. The total, meanwhile, has ticked downward in anticipation of a lower scoring game.
While Temples seven straight wins are impressive, bettors have taken notice of their unbelievable 12-games winning streak ATS. Of course, the odds-makers have taken notice, too. As expectations for this team have continued to rise, they’ve continued to exceed those expectations, but now the Owls are 13-points favorites. That’s the second highest number of points they’ve spotted since September.
Besides, it’s not like Wake Forest has been a terrible bet this year. The Demon Deacons are 7-5 ATS themselves and, despite a loss SU and ATS in their season finale, they’ve still covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
Matchup to Watch
Temple has won their last five games by a combined score of 157-33. The 157 points is strong, but the 33 allowed is the headline.
The No. 24 ranked Temple ranks in the top-10 in yards per game allowed and in points per game allowed, giving up 276.2 yards and 17.2 points, ranking third and eighth respectively.
The Owls are strong everywhere on defense, but it’s the passing defense including both the secondary and pass rush that’s truly elite.
Given the defense, the Demon Deacons will have their hands full trying to get on the board. Wake Forest is a scrappy team and a team that doesn’t turn over the ball often. They’re good at avoiding mistakes and costly penalties, but they’re not the most prolific offense. They’ve scored just 19.2 PPG this whole year, that’s one of the worst marks in college football, ranked No. 122 nationwide.
The team has scored more than 14-points just once since October 8. They’ll need to outscore that to get the upset even given Wake Forest’s own strong defense.
Key Stat
Wake Forest may win the turnover battle and the penalty battle, but don’t look for them to do much otherwise to move the chains.
The Demon Deacons are converting just 34.2-percent of their chance on third downs and face a Temple defense ranked No. 19 on third downs.
Meanwhile, the Owl offense is really good on third downs, converting at a .438 clip, ranking in the top third in college football. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given the Owls’ balanced attack.
Phillip Walker is a respectable quarterback with number of targets while Ryquell Armstead and Jahad Thomas provide some versatility and a stellar one-two punch on the ground. Both backs have an equal 918 rushing yards while Armstead has 14 touchdowns to Thomas’s 13. Thomas, however, provides a good short pass option for Walker in the air. He’s third on the team in passing yards with 426 and has the most receiving touchdowns on the team, catching six of Walker’s 20 touchdown passes.
Free ATS Pick
I don’t look for the Demon Deacons to find the end zone in the Military Bowl. They’ll get deep enough to kick their way onto the board, but the Wake Forest offense has been really bad for a while now.
In a grind-it-out sort of game centered on the ground for most of the first half, this game remains close for a bit, but look for the Owl’s balanced offense to break through against Wake Forest in the second half with Armstead and Thomas continually grinding it out until they wear down the Wake Forest defensive line. From there, the Owls should be able to put some distance between these two teams.
The Demon Deacons don’t make many mistakes, but they don’t do much else either. It’s been a very rough go down the stretch for Wake Forest and that continues on Tuesday while Temple rides a lengthy winning streak to a comfortable victory.
College Football Odds: Temple 23, Wake Forest 9
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