Navy has already won 10 games this season and will shoot for its first 11-win season in the history of the program.
They'll host Pittsburgh which has put together a strong season of their own centered around the defense in Pat Narduzzi's first season at the helm.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh Panthers +3
Navy Midshipmen -3
Over/Under 56
ODDS ANALYSIS
As we inch closer to this bowl showdown between Navy and Pittsburgh, the 3-points spread has held steady in the Midshipmen's favor though the total is slowly heading further south, dropping three points so far down to 53.
The Midshipmen find themselves in an excellent position for this game. They're 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Meanwhile, the under is 4-1 in Navy's last five bowl games, but the over is 4-1 in their last five overall.
KEY MISMATCH
The Panthers have a very good defense, particularly on the ground ranking No. 20 in the nation and No. 3 in the ACC, allowing 126 rushing yards per game.
That defense will be put to the test on Monday against Navy's dominant triple-option rush offense.
Quarterback Keenan Reynolds is the perfect player to run this offense. Overall, they're averaging 36.2 PPG and a staggering 319.2 rushing yards per game.
Reynolds notched his 85th career rushing touchdown this season, setting a Division-I record. This season, he ran for 1,229 yards and 21 scores. While it's all run for this team, Reynolds has thrown for seven touchdowns and just one interception with 1,077 additional yards through the air.
In addition to Reynolds, Chris Swain has added 909 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns while DeBrandon Sanders, Quentin Ezell and Dishan Romaine each average more than five yards a carry and 294 or more total yards. Ezell added six scores as one of 10 different players with a rushing touchdown for the Naval Academy.
Pittsburgh has a good rush defense, but given the variance in the Navy's rushing game, look for the Middies to still move the ball down the field.
KEY STAT
17 - This is the turnover margin on the year for the Midshipmen who've thrown just two interceptions and fumbled the ball away only five times all season long.
With only seven turnovers, the team has done an excellent job of creating good field position. Defensively, they've forced 24 turnovers with 15 fumble recoveries.
Comparatively, Pittsburgh has a positive margin, too. They've allowed six interceptions and seven fumble losses while forcing 15 turnovers.
BETTING ANGLE
The rush-heavy offense is not new to the Panthers. Pittsburgh beat Georgia Tech earlier this season 31-28, though the defense did have trouble, allowing 376 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The Panthers will need to improve on that, particularly if Reynolds is able to supplement that with a few effective pass plays. Pittsburgh lacks the offense to win in a shootout. They do have a strong rushing game ranked amongst the elite in the ACC, but the ground game pales in comparison to Navy's.
In the air, Nathan Peterman has 19 touchdowns to five interceptions which is good, but not good enough if the defense falters.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Navy gets to play at home and is undefeated there, winning all six games this season.
Overall, look for Reynolds to lead the team's rushing attack into another strong performance. We've seen Pittsburgh struggle to stop Georgia Tech earlier and I expect a similar result from their defense against Navy.
As for the Panthers' offense, Navy is allowing only 21.3 PPG and have been very good against the run with only 138.4 rushing yards allowed per game.
Navy 30, Pittsburgh 23
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