The No. 14 Texas AM Aggies kick off a three-game SEC West gauntlet by hosting the No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday. The Bulldogs got their season back on track with a crucial road win at Auburn last week and go for their second straight win over the Aggies. Texas AM opened last season with five straight wins before a loss at Mississippi State started a three-game slide that included defeats to their next two opponents.
ODDS
Texas AM opened as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 56.5. The line was wagered down to -6.5. The Aggies haven’t beaten a ranked team at home since becoming a member of the SEC and the Bulldogs are just 3-10 on the road against ranked foes under coach Dan Mullen. Though both teams didn’t do much offensively last week, that was more a product of the opposition, and the over has value in this one.
KEY MISMATCH
Mississippi State has the most experienced quarterback in the SEC and he’s pretty good, too. Dak Prescott has the Bulldogs back in the rankings after a win at Auburn last week when he threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns. The senior has thrown for 1,069 yards, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions this season and has 191 consecutive pass attempts without a pick. Prescott’s passing numbers are up from last season, but his running stats are trending down with 121 yards rushing and two touchdowns. The Bulldogs have the fewest running attempts in the SEC through four games and had just 56 yards rushing at Auburn. Coach Dan Mullen said the switch to more passing is simply a product of what defenses are giving. Teams are still geared to stop the run so the coaching staff is using its veteran quarterback to make plays. In the end it’s not a balanced offense that matters, but the results on the scoreboard.
KEY STAT
17.0 – Texas AM’s quarterback sack total through four games. The Aggies are second among FBS teams. Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott has been sacked just five times through four games.
BETTING ANGLE
Texas AM has not started 2-0 in conference play since 1997-98, but that drought could come to an end Saturday if the unbeaten Aggies can defeat Mississippi State. The importance of this game is magnified even more for the Aggies when you look at their upcoming schedule. With games against Alabama and at Mississippi looming, a loss could put AM into a death grip in the brutal SEC West. The Aggies are also looking to avoid the problems Mississippi State burdened them with last season. Texas AM got off to a 5-0 start with playoff aspirations before the Bulldogs knocked them off 48-31 in Starkville. That loss started a three-game skid with defeats against, you got it, Alabama and Mississippi following. The Aggies are looking to open 5-0 in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1940 and ’41 and a win keeps their playoff hopes alive for another week.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Both teams were slowed last week by opponent’s that prefer running the ball and will be anxious to get back to the up-tempo style. The Aggies got knocked around by Arkansas and came away with a big comeback win. They can now take advantage of a stretch that has them playing five home games in their next six. Of course it doesn’t mean anything if you can’t win and the Bulldogs are looking like a solid contender in the SEC West. This game is a make or break in the division and MSU has more to lose with a loss to LSU already. The Aggies have showdowns with Alabama and Mississippi up next and a win would set them up nicely for that stretch of games. A loss could be equally devastating. AM will air it out using their trio of talented receivers and Kyle Allen, who’s having a big season, will make a few more plays than Prescott to get AM the home win in a close one.
Texas AM 37, Mississippi State 34
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -7 in favor of the Aggies. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 56.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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