Kentucky has been a home underdog in its last three SEC games, but the Wildcats take the field Saturday as a small favorite over two time SEC East champion Missouri. This is the Tigers’ SEC opener while the Wildcats play their third conference contest after losing to Florida last week, 14-9.
ODDS
Kentucky has been bet up to a 3-point favorite over Missouri with some money showing under the posted total of 43.5.
KEY MISMATCH
Kentucky Defense against Missouri offense and quarterback Maty Mauk
The Wildcats played Florida even last week in stats, first downs and had a chance to win late. The Gators defense is dominant, but Missouri’s is not nearly as strong this season and the Tigers offense has really struggled. Quarterback Maty Mauk has thrown five interceptions against inferior foes and coach Pinkel is gun shy to go with his true freshman Drew Lock.
Missouri’s offensive line is clearly underperforming, and senior Evan Boehm, the nation’s top NFL prospect at center, missed last week’s game with a high-ankle sprain and is far from 100 percent. The Tigers weak receiving corps is struggling along with their quarterback, and there is nothing to suggest the Tigers will move the ball with any success or consistency in their opening SEC game.
Kentucky’s defense is improving and just had one of its best games in the third year under coach Mark Stoops holding Florida to 245 yards. The ‘Cats red zone defense is among the best in the country and they have now played two solid SEC opponent’s this season and beat South Carolina on the road.
The Wildcats run defense has not been strong, but Missouri ran the ball for just 2.5 yards per rush last week and 3.0 YPR in their opener against an FCS team. With the return of lineman Jason Hatcher last week and linebacker Ryan Flannigan this week, the ‘Cats should claw the Tigers and shut them down.
KEY STATS
126 – Kentucky was held to just 241 yards last week against Florida, and Wildcats quarterback Patrick Towles had his worst performance as a Wildcat going 9-of-24 for 126 passing yards and two interceptions. He was also sacked six times and the Florida defense had 10 tackles for loss.
11 – Missouri enters its SEC opener with the nation’s longest winning streak on the road at 11 games, and covered the first ten.
4.85 – Missouri is averaging a woeful 4.85 yards per play this season.
BETTING ANGLE
Missouri is 3-0 SU and ATS versus Kentucky the last three seasons including winning 20-10 last year as 8-poiunt home chalk.
The over is 5-1 in Kentucky’s last six home games, but the under is 6-0 in Missouri’s last six September games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The return of senior linebacker Ryan Flannigan this week gives the ‘Cats a big boost at their strongest position, as he joins senior linebacker Josh Forrest as the team’s top-two tacklers from last season.
Missouri is 3-0 versus a soft slate but 0-3 ATS after last week’s 9-6 home win over UCONN as a 21-point favorite. That should raise serious red flags as the Tigers managed just 270 yards of offense and now hit the road for their SEC opener.
Missouri is taking 2.5 and 3-points in places, and many are looking towards the Tigers in this match-up as underdogs with their recent dominance over Kentucky. But the Wildcats are stronger than Mizzou this season and showed their improvement the last two weeks including a balanced 400 yards of offense in beating South Carolina on the road as 7-point pups.
Missouri is a far cry from recent editions and we anticipate an easier than expected win for the Wildcats.
Kentucky 27, Missouri 13
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Kentucky Wildcats were pegged as 1.5-point chalk while the total opened at 44.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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