It's been a strange year in the Mountain West for sure, as none of the teams which were the favorites at the start of the year factored into the league title.
Instead, it'll be the San Diego State Aztecs and the Air Force Falcons matching wits for the MWC championship.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu Air Force Falcons +6.5 San Diego State Aztecs -6.5 Over/Under 52.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Aztecs only ended up hosting the MWC title game after Air Force was beaten by New Mexico on the final day of the regular season. That said, that flipped which team was going to be favored in this one.
Whereas Air Force would've probably been laying a few points if this game was being played in Colorado Springs, it has opened up at -6.5 with the game being played at Qualcomm instead.
These two clubs aren't your prototypical offense standouts as we usually see in the conference, and that's why the total is relatively low for a conference title game at 51.
KEY MISMATCH
Six different running backs have had more than 50 yards on the ground against this Air Force offense in the last three games, and that's why the defense has all of a sudden started conceding far too many points. The 47 given up to New Mexico was the low point of the season, though it should be noted that the Lobos have been much better this year than in the recent past.
San Diego State is sure to take advantage if the Falcons are once again weak in the front seven. Donnel Pumphrey and Chase Price combined to carry the ball 427 times for 2,353 yards and 22 TDs this year, and few teams have been able to stop either one, let alone both.
This offensive line for the Aztecs is big and strong, and all too often, they take over games. Air Force could be the next in line to really struggle against SDSU, a team averaging 235.5 rushing yards per game.
KEY STAT
22.2 – The number of yards per completion Air Force is averaging this year. The Aztecs have had a history of slowing down the triple option, something we'll talk about in just a moment, and the fact that this team is allowing just 2.8 yards per carry and 95.0 rushing yards per game is a big problem for the Falcons.
That said, Karson Roberts can throw the ball well, and both Jalen Robinette and Garrett Brown are averaging over 20 yards per catch. Both could be big factors here.
BETTING ANGLE
The Aztecs have won five games in a row and covered six in a row in this series against the Falcons. In fact, if you want to include all games against triple option teams, San Diego State is 8-0 ATS since 2009.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Aztecs are really well coached under Rocky Long, and if there's a man who can get this team ready for this situation to take on a triple option team in just six days, he's the one.
We're not sold on the Falcons and their defense right now, and if they can't figure out how to keep the Aztecs in the 20s, they're in a lot of trouble.
San Diego State 34, Air Force 20
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Click here, and start wagering today! Kick off for the game between the Air Force Falcons and the San Diego State Aztecs is scheduled for Saturday, December 5, 2015 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium. The duel can be seen live on ESPN2.
