Notre Dame will look to resuscitate its faded playoff hopes against unbeaten and unranked Navy when the teams meet for the 88th consecutive year in a series rich in historical significance. The teams have split the last four games in South Bend and the Irish are still fuming over their first loss of the season suffered last week. Looking ahead to a matchup with USC next week could be costly for the Golden Domers.
ODDS
The line opened with Notre Dame at -15 and a total of 55. The teams have topped the closing total in each of their last five meetings averaging a combined 68.4 points. It’s hard to imagine this one being much different, so there is plenty of value on the over, even though it did jump to 56. The spread was wagered down to 14.5.
KEY MISMATCH
The player nobody wanted will soon be the one history won’t be able to forget. An undersized and under-recruited quarterback, Keenan Reynolds had three college football options: Air Force, Navy and Wofford. He selected Navy, where his knack for making the right decision out of three options will soon put him in the NCAA record books. Reynolds has mastered Navy’s triple-option offense and has scored a program record 73 rushing touchdowns, the most by a quarterback in NCAA history. Only one player – former Wisconsin back Montee Ball – has run for more scores than Reynolds. To run the triple-option effectively, a quarterback must have quick feet and make split second decisions. Any hesitation can lead to disaster. Now in his fourth year, nobody does it better than Reynolds. The Middies have the third most potent ground attack at 339.8 yards per game and Reynolds is responsible for more than a third of that with an average of 122.
KEY STAT
15.0 – Points per game allowed by Navy. The Midshipmen will be tested by a mammoth offensive line that helps the Irish score 37.2 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
While this game was circled on the Naval Academy’s calendar when the schedule came out, it’s just another tough game for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame saw its perfect season end last week in heartbreaking fashion at Clemson. The Irish stormed back from a 21-3 second half deficit, only to fail on a game-tying two-point conversion following a touchdown with seven seconds left. Next week the Irish host USC. It might be safe to say Notre Dame is overlooking the Midshipmen, and that could be dangerous. Navy looks good on both sides of the ball this season and is 4-0 SU and ATS. While the Middies have certainly passed the eye test thus far, they’ll face its toughest opponent, but nothing fazes these warriors. They have proven to be a strong team on the road, going 5-1 SU in their past six, while rewarding bettors with an impressive 6-2 ATS record in their last eight. Navy has struggled against its long-time rivals, losing the last four SU, but is a solid 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four at Notre Dame Stadium.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Navy has been solid but hasn’t faced an opponent with better talent than East Carolina or Air Force. The Irish are bigger, stronger and faster than anything the Middies have seen, which will create mismatches on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame should be able to push Navy around at the line of scrimmage, getting running back C.J. Prosise back on track and allowing DeShone Kizer time to do his thing in the backfield. The triple-option is the X-factor that allows lesser talented teams to compete with the big boys and Reynolds operates it to near perfection. A few turnovers and a lucky bounce or two could have the Middies in line for an upset. They clearly have the edge in motivation, but Notre Dame has too much talent to cruise through a Navy game. Stifling Georgia Tech’s triple-option a few weeks back is an indication the Irish can clamp down.
Notre Dame 37, Navy 28
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Notre Dame -15 with a total of 55. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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