The Northwestern football team had a tremendous year in 2015, winning 10 games and easily surpassing expectations. That hasn’t done much to convince the oddsmakers of their ability to keep it up, as the Wildcats’ projected over-under win total for this season is set at 6.5 in NCAA football wagering.
Northwestern was very good in 2015, picking up double-digit victories in the regular season before falling to the Tennessee Volunteers in its bowl game. The reason the WIldcats aren’t expected to duplicate those results is because of their margin of victory. Northwestern defeated Stanford, Duke, Ball State, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois all by 10 points or fewer. Furthermore, the Wildcats lost their three games to Tennessee, Michigan and Iowa by at least 30 points each. With so much luck on their side, Northwestern could have a tough time capturing so many close games again in 2016.
If Northwestern is to surpass 6.5 wins, its offense will need to step up. The unit averaged only 19.5 points per game last year, which was one of the worst marks in the country. Quarterback Clayton Thorson returns but only threw for 1,522 yards with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions a season ago. He was a threat on the ground, and could be a good player if his passing numbers improve. Northwestern returns running back Justin Jackson, who had 1,418 yards and five touchdowns a season ago. The running game may lead the way as the Wildcats lose two of their top three receivers, although nobody stood out among the receivers.
The defense was the backbone of the 2015 team, as Northwestern was 12th nationally by allowing only 18.6 points per game. The unit does lose some key players, including Deonte Gibson, who had 29 tackles and nine sacks a season ago. Linebacker Drew Smith was another key piece as he added 47 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss. The Wildcats do bring back a lot of talent. Ifeadi Odenigbo had five sacks a season ago, Anthony Walker had 91.5 tackles, four sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss, and Matthew Harris added four interceptions and 13 pass breakups.
If Northwestern can come close to last year’s impressive 10-3 record, it will again be on the strength of the defense, but the offense will need to make strides as counting on so many close wins again is foolhardy. However, the Wildcats are more likely to regress close to .500 this season after a point-differential that didn’t jive with the overall record. Northwestern will aim to surpass the projected win total of 6.5 but it makes sense why it is expected to take a step back in 2016 in NCAA football wagering.
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