Fresno State has just two wins this season and overall, their defense and offense have been atrocious.
The team has been outscored by an average of 19.9 points, and will once again have its hands full with the win-hungry Nevada Wolf Pack.
ODDS
Nevada will be on the road for this game in Fresno, but are the 4.5-point chalk according to the oddsmakers.
The Wolf Pack is an even 4-4 SU and ATS this year, but the Bulldogs are just 2-6 SU and ATS. Nevada is also coming off a bye week and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after the bye. They’re also a respectable 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The trends aren’t so favorable for the Bulldogs who check in a bankroll-killing 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
KEY MISMATCH
Nevada’s passing game is questionable, but the offense can move the ball down the field on the ground. The Wolf Pack is averaging 212 rushing yards per game, good enough to rank No. 25 in the country.
Nevada’s got a great matchup for the offense again this week as Fresno State’s defense has really struggled to stop quality running games. They’ve allowed 239.1 rushing yards per game and 25 rushing touchdowns this year.
All of the damage on the ground has come from one of three players: James Butler, Don Jackson and Tyler Stewart.
Stewart, the team’s quarterback, has been okay in the air, but that’s been secondary in their game plan to the run. He’s got 270 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Butler and Jackson have combined for 11 scores and 1,430 yards.
In their most recent game, against Hawaii, Butler ran for 134 and two touchdowns while Fresno allowed 458 rushing yards to Air Force last time out.
KEY STAT
.520 – This is the percentage of third-down conversions allowed by the Fresno State defense this year, the third worst mark in the sport.
More than half of the time the Bulldogs are able to force a third down attempt, they are unable to shut down the offense, allowing the opposition a new set of downs. Given those figures, it’s no wonder the defense has struggled as much as it has.
Nevada is in the middle of the pack offensively on third downs, but given Fresno’s futility, they’ll have more chances to continue drives on Thursday.
BETTING ANGLE
Interestingly, while wins have been elusive for Fresno State, both SU and ATS, they’ve found success ATS when facing Nevada in the past.
The Bulldogs have beaten the spread in four of their last five meetings with the Wolf Pack. The road team is undefeated ATS in the last four meetings, giving Nevada another edge according to the head-to-head trends.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Wolf Pack has yet to win back-to-back games, but Thursday should be the day as they beat Hawaii before the bye and had ample time to prepare for a Fresno State team that ranks below average in nearly every facet of the game.
Nevada’s poor low yardage in the air and mediocre, at best, defense has plagued them against good and even average teams, but Fresno State is neither. The Bulldogs’ offense is poor both in the air and on the ground. They’ve also shown an inability to stop top end running backs, of which the Wolf Pack have a couple.
Look for Nevada to put forth a commanding effort with the Wolf Pack running all over the Bulldogs.
Nevada 35, Fresno State 20
The college football lines for this contest were first released by BookMaker and the Wolf Pack were positioned as 4.5-point favorites. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Nevada Wolf Pack and Fresno State Bulldogs square off on Thursday, November 5, 2015, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Bulldog Stadium. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
