Texas A&M can nearly name the score against Nevada Saturday, and the question is when coach Kevin Sumlin will put the backups in the game and how much energy and effort can be expected in this contest with the Aggies’ SEC opener on deck.
ODDS
Texas A&M opened a 29-point favorite with the Aggies taking over 85 percent of the early ticket action and are now a 32.5-point favorites over Nevada.
KEY MISMATCH
Point-of-attack play. Texas A&M is going to roll over Nevada and pound its running game to overpower the Wolf Pack. Last week Nevada allowed 301 rushing yards at home to Arizona in a 44-20 defeat.
The Aggies overpowered a top-20 Arizona State team in their season opener on this field racking up 425 yards and 178 on the ground against a stronger ASU defense in a 38-17 win and cover.
Then last week, the Aggies overwhelmed an inferior Ball State team 56-23 as a 31-point favorite and called off the dogs leading 49-3 at halftime. Texas A&M rolled up 503 yards of total offense with 270 coming on the ground and used two quarterbacks and three deep at running back.
Nevada is rated better than Ball State, so this line is clearly inflated and Texas A&M has their SEC opener up next against Arkansas. But the Aggies still appear to be too powerful and history shows they roll up the scores in these early-season non-conference games.
KEY STAT
In this last three seasons under Sumlin, the Aggies have buried non-conference opponents at home scoring the following points in early season match-ups: 73, 38, 52, 65, 42, and 70.
7.0 – Nevada allowed 7.0 yards per rush last week against a similar spread offense of Arizona that Texas A&M will bring this week.
BETTING ANGLE
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games and the under is 7-2 ATS in the Aggies last nine home games.
The under is 16-5 in the Wolf Pack’s last 21 games and 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
The Wolf Pack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a winning home record, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. But Nevada is 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall including 0-2 ATS this season.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Last week’s game was the first at Kyle Field since undergoing a $485 million renovation. Nevada is likely to struggle in this tough environment after its offense gained just 327 yards last week against a less talented Arizona defense who was playing without its All-American linebacker.
So while a letdown could be looming a bit for Texas A&M and they will likely again replace some starters in the second half if the game gets out of hand, it’s hard to see Nevada being able to generate enough offense to stay in this non-conference one-sided clash.
You’re paying a premium to bet on Texas A&M this week, but the Aggies have also shown that they take no prisoners in these early-season non-conference games at home. Arizona moved the ball up and down the field for 570 yards against Nevada last week and the Aggies could easily reach those numbers if their starters play longer than last week.
Texas A&M 49, Nevada 10
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Texas A&M -29.5 with a total to be posted early in the week. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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