Wins against Penn State and at Clemson stand out for the Pittsburgh Panthers as they head into the New Era Pinstripe Bowl as the favorites against a 6-6 Northwestern Wildcats squad. Despite the statement wins, the Panthers still closed out the season with a 2-3 mark on the road and will face the Wildcats outside of Pittsburgh, but with the game in the Big Apple, the Panthers will still have the geographical advantage.
This contest in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl will go down Wednesday, December 28, 2016, at 2 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh -5.5
Northwestern +5.5
Over/Under 66
Odds Analysis
The total has been dropping while the spread has been rising since both were released. The Panthers now sit as 5.5-point favorites while they opened with the four point advantage.
The Wildcats, however, have the edge in their ATS record, coming into play at 7-5 ATS this year compared to Pittsburgh’s 5-7 mark. Of course, the Panthers won two more games SU giving them the upper hand in that regard. Pittsburgh has also covered in four of their last six games.
Matchup to Watch
The Panthers do most of their work on the ground and dominant the rushing game on both sides of the ball, but the key matchup to watch in this game will be Northwestern’s air attack against an absolutely dismal pass defense for the Panthers.
Pittsburgh ranks at the bottom of the sport in passing yards allowed per game, giving up 343.1 yards in the air per contest.
Northwestern isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut and the team has shown plenty of inconsistencies, but the passing game is its strength and the Wildcats have put up some big point totals against subpar defenses, even if the better ones like Wisconsin and Minnesota have shut them down.
The Clayton Thorson-Austin Carr connection has produced very good numbers this season. Thorson has connected with Carr on 12 touchdowns and the talented receiver has amassed 1,196 yards on 84 receptions as the QB’s go-to target.
Pittsburgh’s secondary will key in on Carr, but it’s hard to envision them shutting him down completely. Thorson can go elsewhere if needed and, if they get too concerned with Carr, Justin Jackson is at least a reasonable threat on the ground with 1,300 yards and 12 scores.
Player to Watch
Keep tabs on Nathan Peterman in this game. Both the offenses will be focused on the passing attack as the front seven for each team can control the running game. Sure, James Connor is still likely to play a key role, but Peterman was the driving force behind the Panthers’ biggest win of the season, topping No. 2 Clemson.
In that game, Peterman threw for 308 yards and five touchdowns. In his last three games, the QB has 12 touchdown passes to two interceptions and boasts a 26:6 touchdown to interception ratio overall. It’s been a strong senior season for the Pittsburgh quarterback and an even stronger finish.
With him playing some of his best football right now, he helps stabilize the offense making it more predictable and consistent than Northwestern though both units can score plenty under the right circumstances.
Overall, the Panthers are 10th in college football with 42.3 PPG scored and have topped that figure in each of their last three games. Most recently, they scored 76 against Syracuse and put up 43 against a Tigers’ defense ranked No. 12 in the nation, allowing just 18.4 PPG.
Free ATS Pick
The Wildcats’ offense has been hit or miss, but it generally performs against lesser defenses while struggling against the elite defenses. With that, look for Jackson to get tied up some on the ground, but bet on Thorson to lead Northwestern down the field on enough successful drives to keep this game close.
Meanwhile, on the other side, bank on James Connor outgaining Jackson on the ground and look for Peterman to do enough in the air. After all, he threw four touchdowns on just nine completions in route to 76-poitns and the win in their season finale against Syracuse.
In the end, look for a high scoring affair and bank on the over with both teams likely to score at least in the mid-30s. Overall, look for the Panthers to get the win on the strength of their rush defense helping to make the Northwestern offense a bit one-dimensional, but with both teams likely to be able to throw the ball down field at-will, this will be a close, back-and-forth sort of game so take the points, particularly if the spread continues to grow.
College Football Odds: Pittsburgh 39, Northwestern 36
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