After winning four and three the past two seasons, New Mexico jumped to seven-wins and will be motivated for a bowl game even on their own home field.
Arizona has stronger stats and profiles, but the Wildcats motivation may not be as strong after qualifying for a New Year’s Day bowl last season and going just 6-6 this season.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico Lobos +10
Arizona Wildcats -10
Over/Under 68
ODDS ANALYSIS
Arizona is still a 10-point favorite and the total has been bet down to 65.
Arizona’s offense was among the leaders in the Pac-12 again this season averaging nearly 500 yards and 37 points per game. But the Wildcats defense is deficient making them a risk at this price against a New Mexico team than can control the ball, clock and chains with its dynamic option attack.
KEY MISMATCH
New Mexico’s option attack against Arizona’s run defense.
The Wildcats allowed at least 45 points in five Pac-12 games this season and were gouged by the stronger running teams. That includes allowing 250 rushing yards to their rival Arizona State in their season finale 52-35 loss. The Wildcats were also run over at the point of attack against Stanford allowing 314 rushing yards at nearly 7.0 yards per rush. The USC Trojans rushed for 229 yards and all three of those games were on the road.
Recall the Wildcats lost All-American linebacker Scooby Wright to a regular season-ending foot injury in September. However, he’s practicing and will play in this bowl game. Despite time to prepare for the option attack, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Wildcats defense as New Mexico pounds the ground at least 40 times with success.
KEY STAT
Both these teams have powerful rushing attacks with New Mexico averaging 246 per game and Arizona 226. Combined with deficient defenses that allow 432 and 463 yards at 6.0 yards per play including 194 and 188 rushing respectively, we should see large chunks of yardage accrued on the ground.
BETTING ANGLE
New Mexico won three of its final four games while going 3-1 ATS as underdogs. That includes outright upsets as 11, 31 and 20 point underdogs versus Air Force, Boise State and Utah State.
Arizona games played to their over on nine of 12 occasions this season.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Few coaches have done a better job with less to work with than Bob Davie at New Mexico. He’ll have his team ready and motivated to complete a solid season in which pre-season prognosticators forecast New Mexico near the bottom of the Mountain West conference standings.
New Mexico’s triple option attack will move the ball and score in this contest. But so too should Arizona’s powerful, balanced offense as star quarterback Anu Solomon likely returns after missing the regular NCAAF season finale against Arizona State with a concussion.
Running back Nick Wilson will also be back after missing a pair of games since October and rushing for less than 50 yards in the final three games.
Motivation is key to many bowl contests and especially in the early bowls. Arizona lost four of its final five games while New Mexico stormed through the Mountain West down the stretch with three major upsets.
The line may be adjusted accordingly, but we’re still more interested in the team with more motivation at home.
Arizona 40, New Mexico 37
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