The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns will head on over to the Big Easy in an in-state bowl game against the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles in the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. Getting a primetime slot on the opening weekend of the bowl season, both teams enter play at 6-6, looking for a winning season and a bowl victory each staying in their home region.
Watch this New Orleans Bowl matchup live on Saturday, December 17, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Southern Mississippi
Louisiana-Lafayette
Odds Analysis
A strong finish helped the Ragin Cajuns nab the six wins to become bowl eligible as they were able to win three of their last four games, covering the spread in each.
Overall, ULL actually did pretty well for bettors this year with a 8-4 ATS mark, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
While Louisiana-Lafayette got to the New Orleans Bowl on its ties to the Creole State and late season run, it was the early season success that got Southern Miss to this Saturday night battle.
The Golden Eagles had lost three in a row and five of six before salvaging a win in the regular season finale against a good Louisiana Tech team. That win also snapped a seven game losing streak ATS.
Matchup to Watch
Look for the Ragin Cajuns’ front seven to put a strangle hold on the Southern Miss running game, quieting Ito Smith and putting the offense on the shoulders of Nick Mullens.
Generally, the Golden Eagles’ passing game has led the way for the offense anyway. They’re ranked No. 23 in passing yards per game while sitting in the middle of the pack on the ground.
On the other side, the Cajuns can give up yardage in the secondary, making the matchup of Mullens and wide outs Allen Staggers and D.J. Thompson against ULL’s corners key to this game.
Southern Miss has been able to balance the run and the pass all season long, but with the run limited, can the air attack be as productive?
The Eagles certainly have the experience advantage on the outside, too, with Staggers and Thompson, but look for ULL to put a lot of prep work into stopping the pass in preparation for this game. If they’re successful at slowing the passing game, they’re in great position as they hold the edge in defensive numbers and have had better trends of late.
Letdown Spot
The Eagles’ 39-24 win over the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech was a huge surprise as they entered the game as 14.5-point pups at home.
The win could be a huge momentum boast for Southern Miss as they can now finish the season above .500 with a win over another foe from the Pelican State.
The Bulldogs have the better offense compared to the Ragin Cajuns, but defensively, the Louisiana Tech was overmatched. Mullens tossed 342 yards—135 of them to Thompson—and notched three passing scores while completing 29 of 33 passes. The ground game also came through with a couple scores while Smith rushed for 127 yards.
While the Eagles’ recent win was a huge motivational
boast, it’s ULL that’s had the more sustained push here at the end of the season. They’re defense has allowed just 22-points over their last two games.
Free ATS Pick
Southern Miss has the bigger offensive upside. They can move the ball in the air and on the ground against the right defenses, but look for Louisiana-Lafayette to shutdown Smith. Mullens, on the other hand, will put up numbers, but look for him to give up a pick or two as he’s asked to take on a larger load to compensate for a sluggish ground game.
In the end, ULL will be able to make the big stops when needed to keep the game within reach.
On offense, the Ragin Cajuns don’t have a particularly robust offense, but they can move the ball on the ground when needed and defensive front has been weaker for Southern Miss than the secondary. Even in the win over Louisiana Tech, the Eagles have allowed at least 24-points in four straight games and recently gave up 51 to Old Dominion.
In the end, Anthony Jennings manages to hold onto the ball and avoid turnovers while Elijah McGuire carries the team to victory.
College Football Odds: Louisiana-Lafayette 33, Southern Miss 28
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