A key ACC Coastal division clash is set to go on ESPN Thursday as Pitt hosts North Carolina with each team 6-1 this season.
Pitt is 4-0 in ACC play with a stronger defense while North Carolina is 3-0 with the league’s highest-scoring offense.
ODDS
The North Carolina Tar Heels are now 2.5-point road favorites at Pittsburgh after opening up at -1.
Both teams are 4-3 ATS this season and Pitt has won its last two games on the road by a field goal including last Saturday’s win over Syracuse at the final gun on a last-second field goal, 23-20.
KEY MISMATCH
North Carolina’s rush offense against Pitt’s defense.
The Tar Heels are very balanced and efficient on offense averaging 213 rushing at 6.3 yards per rush and 245 passing at 9.4 yards per pass in ACC play. While Pitt’s defense has been solid allowing 321 yards per game, the Panthers 5.7 yards per play is average.
Syracuse rushed for 136 yards at 5.9 yards per play and Georgia Tech’s power option attack rushed for 376 at 9.4 yards per rush. In fact, Pitt’s 5.2 yards per rush allowed in ACC play is third-worst in the conference while North Carolina’s 6.3 yards per rush is the league’s best.
North Carolina has 10 red zone touchdowns in three ACC games to lead the league with nine of those coming on the ground. Sophomore running back Elijah Hood has 262 rushing yards in three league games while senior quarterback Marquise Williams has 278 and Williams is tied for the league-lead with 307 yards per game total offense.
KEY STAT
7.6 – North Carolina enters with the ACC’s most efficient yards per play offense at 7.6 while averaging 457 yards per game in ACC play.
4 – North Carolina has allowed just four sacks through three ACC games.
13 – North Carolina is 13-for-13 in red zone opportunities including 10 touchdowns in ACC play.
BETTING ANGLE
Both teams won at Georgia Tech in games decided by 7-points or less, but the Tar Heels showed better and had a better stat profile in even yardage while Pitt was out-gained by 80 yards.
But the Panthers were just a 3-point underdog while North Carolina was +6.5, so you can see the reaction to North Carolina’s stronger play.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Tar Heels are among the league’s two most penalized teams, which could be the only thing preventing them from moving the ball and beating Pitt. Recall the Tar Heels out-lasted the Panthers late last season 40-35 with both teams combining for over 500 yards of total offense.
Both teams are very well coached and you’ll see some solid defensive plays and strategy in this key ACC division showdown.
Pitt was in a letdown situation last week following their big road win at Georgia Tech, but the Panthers still prevailed at Syracuse in a very close contest. In an unusual scheduling situation, Pitt has played five of its last six games on the road while North Carolina has played just one true road games the entire season.
In recent weeks the Panthers defense has not been as strong and against a similar balanced but not as explosive Iowa offense, the Panthers were outgained by 80 yards and allowed 363 yards. Despite being on the road, the Tar Heels are in the better scheduling situation with the more balanced offense to offset the Panthers defense. If quarterback Marquise Williams minimizes mistakes, the Tar Heels should prevail to set up another first-place showdown with Duke next week.
North Carolina 27, Pitt 20
The college football lines for this contest were first released by BookMaker and the North Carolina Tar Heels were positioned as 1-point favorites. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The North Carolina Tar Heels and Pitt Panthers square off on Thursday, October 29, 2015, at 7:00 p.m. ET at Heinz Field. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
