Pitt had climbed to No. 23 in last week’s AP poll and was sitting atop the ACC Coastal Division until a loss to North Carolina dropped them from both. Notre Dame continues to find ways to win and will look to avoid any potholes before its regular season finale showdown with No. 9 Stanford. The Panthers have been a tough out for the Irish with the teams splitting the last six games with each being decided by no more than seven points.
ODDS
Notre Dame opened as a 7.5-point favorite. A series that hasn’t seen a winner by more than seven points in the last six matchups figures to be another close one. The betting public doesn’t think so with the line wagered to -8. The total hit the board at 52.5.
KEY MISMATCH
Coach Brian Kelly wanted his team to do a better job of not allowing big plays. An area that has been a problem for the Irish defense all season and a key for his squad moving through November. The Irish responded last week against Temple. Owls’ running back Jahad Thomas did rip off a 39-yard run, but Notre Dame was solid otherwise. P.J. Walker’s longest completion in that game was for 31-yards. The Irish face a Panthers team that lost some of its big-play ability when star running back James Conner was lost with a season-ending knee injury in the season opener. Pitt ranks 91st in the country in total offense with 364.9 yards per game, and 89th in scoring with 26.1 points per game. The Panthers have 91 plays of at least 10 yards from scrimmage, which is among the lowest totals in FBS. Their 14 plays of at least 30 yards from scrimmage are tied for 92nd.
KEY STAT
78.8 – Notre Dame’s red zone scoring efficiency. The Irish rank 99th in the FBS with 26 scores in 33 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Pitt has allowed a score on each of its opponent’s 17 trips inside the red zone and is last in the FBS.
BETTING ANGLE
If not the most talented, Notre Dame is at least the highest-ranked opponent Pitt figures to play this season. On paper this looks like a game the Irish should win. But the Panthers’ success against Notre Dame and coach Brian Kelly can’t be ignored, either. For whatever reason, it‘s a game Pitt is always prepared to play. The last four games between the teams have been decided by an average of 4.5 points with the Irish winning three times. But Notre Dame has faltered against Pitt when it comes to covering the spread going just 1-4-1 ATS in the past six games with the teams splitting the games SU. Pitt gets the game at home, which should be a benefit, and the Panthers have a little extra rest after playing their last game on Oct. 29. Notre Dame had a hard-fought battle in Philly against Temple last Saturday night and makes a return trip to Pennsylvania. Few would argue that the Irish are the more talented team but while things look bad on paper, it would be foolish to count the Panthers out.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Irish struggled last week on the road against a hungry Temple team, but were still able to come out with a hard-fought win. Notre Dame faltered in the red zone again and C.J. Prosise had the worst day of the season statistically. But Notre Dame again found a way to win. DeShone Kizer tossed a touchdown pass with just over two minutes remaining and KeiVarae Russell picked off a pass to end the Owls’ last threat. That’s what good teams do. They find different ways to win college football games. The wins haven’t been perfect, and the performances haven’t been complete. Yet Notre Dame has had enough – enough big plays both offensively and defensively and enough veteran leadership. Pitt squandered a chance to take control of its destiny in the ACC Atlantic and will find it difficult to knock off the Irish, though the Panthers will give it their best effort and keep the game close, like they always do.
Notre Dame 28, Pittsburgh 24
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