Big 12 opener in Austin, where the Longhorns find themselves a home underdog for the second-straight week and will try to silence the critics after a 1-2 start. But No. 24 Oklahoma State is undefeated at 3-0 and worthy of being a road favorite even with the adjustment in price.
ODDS
Oklahoma State is a 3-point road favorite over Texas with the total opening at 59 and already moving upward into the 60s.
The Longhorns offense has finally emerged with the switch to Jerrod Heard at quarterback. He led a fierce fourth-quarter comeback last week versus Cal while scoring on two long touchdown runs, but a missed PAT in the final minute left the Longhorns short in a 45-44 defeat.
Heard’s passing and improvisational runs will likely drive this total upwards into the 60’s as both Cal and Texas surpassed 540 yards of offense last week with the Longhorns rolling up 650 total yards. But the Texas defense is deficient, and the Longhorns have struggled against the run and defending on third down.
KEY MISMATCH
The Oklahoma State offense versus Texas’ defense
Oklahoma State is more experienced and vastly improved this season. While they have played a soft early-season schedule, expect the Cowboys to have success and balance this week attacking a deficient Texas defense that is terribly underperforming.
Recall the Longhorns allowed 462 yards at home to Rice prior to getting torched by California last week. The Longhorns defense allowed pass-heavy Cal to run for 280 yards at 6.8 yards per rush.
KEY STAT
192 – Texas went into Stillwater last year and completely shut down the Cowboys while holding Oklahoma State to a season-low 192 yards and nine first downs in a 28-7 romp.
527 - Texas quarterback Heard set a school record in total offense rushing for 163 yards and three touchdowns and passed for another 364 yards in defeat last week.
BETTING ANGLE
The Cowboys are 20-9 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
The Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and 1-4 ATS as a home ‘Dog since the start of last season.
Texas is 9-1 in its last 10 Big 12 home openers.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Understanding market and line adjustments is important in early season college football. So too is grasping the play of teams, key injuries, opponents faced and adjusting your opinions on teams without overreacting to specific results.
Texas would have been a slight favorite in this match-up at the start of the season, but the Longhorns struggles and poor play at times on both sides of the ball have bettors flocking to bet against them. But last week the same big adjustment had Texas a home ‘Dog of a touchdown, and the Longhorns rallied to cover in defeat, 45-44.
Still, Oklahoma State is more balanced and can utilize its running game against the Longhorns. Sophomore quarterback Mason Rudolph has passed for nearly 1,000 yards in three games. The daily conundrum as a handicapper in evaluating stats and match-ups is projecting numbers and analyzing strength of schedule and opponents faced to determining success or failure.
The Cowboys have faced three weaker opponents while the Longhorns have battled Notre Dame and Cal in defeat. Texas showed marked improvement last week and has found its new starting quarterback. Senior wide receiver Marcus Johnson should return this week after sitting against Cal. But we still don’t think it’s enough to corral the Cowboys, who were without four defensive starters last week in their rout of Texas San Antonio, 69-14. Those four players return to action this week.
Oklahoma State 37, Texas 31
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Oklahoma State -3 with a total of 59. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Need to fund your account before the big game but don’t have your computer? No problem, BookMaker Sportsbook now offers a mobile betting cashier so you can deposit money directly from your smartphone. Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The contest between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns will take place Saturday, September 26, 2015, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
