Ole Miss still controls its destiny in the SEC West with a game against LSU in two weeks and can’t afford to take a breather against an Auburn squad that is scratching and clawing just to qualify for a bowl game. Auburn beat the Rebels in heartbreaking fashion last season and is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six games between the teams.
ODDS
Ole Miss opened as a 5-point favorite with the total at 59. Auburn is 0-3 ATS at Jordan-Hare this season and 1-6 ATS overall. The Tigers have been a team to stay away from dating back to last season posting a 1-11 ATS record in their last 12 games. The line was wagered to -7.5 while the total dropped to 57.5.
KEY MISMATCH
The Rebels’ high-powered offense has been mostly pass-heavy through the first eight weeks of the season, with first-year starting quarterback Chad Kelly leading the way. But last week, Ole Miss cracked the 200-yard mark against a Power Five opponent for the first time all season by rushing for 230 yards against Texas AM. Jaylen Walton led the ground attack with 97 yards and the balance was too much for the Aggies to defend. Auburn’s defense is outside the top 100 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game this season. In order to get the best out of its offense in Jordan-Hare, the Rebels need to again have a balanced attack. Being too one-dimensional will hurt their clear offensive advantage. If Ole Miss can carry over its rushing success from the Texas AM game, it will be able to limit some of its turnover issues and keep the Tigers defense frustrated throughout the day. Forcing things through the air isn’t the way to go, even against Auburn’s young secondary.
KEY STAT
-3 – Ole Miss’ turnover margin. The Rebels have an SEC-high 19 giveaways and had four last week, but still pulled out the convincing win over Texas AM. Auburn is plus-1 in turnover margin.
BETTING ANGLE
Some of the Rebels, including receiver Laquon Treadwell, said the game against Auburn will be particularly intense. Treadwell should know the emotions run high in critical conference showdowns. Treadwell was trying to score a go-ahead touchdown against Auburn last November when he was tackled from behind and broke his leg in a gruesome injury that ended his season. Treadwell also fumbled on the play, a big reason then-No. 4 Auburn was able to hang on for the 35-31 win. That loss pretty much ended any hope the then-No. 7 Rebels had at winning an SEC title. Treadwell spent several months rehabbing and has returned to have a big season. He leads the SEC with 54 catches and 756 receiving yards while scoring five touchdowns. “They’re going to feel my pain,” Treadwell said. The Tigers don’t appear quite as formidable an opponent as they were last year after falling 54-46 in four overtimes at Arkansas last week.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The “Land Shark” defense employed by Ole Miss took a bite out of Texas AM last week, holding the Aggies to just three points. The Rebels were so efficient they sent Aggies’ starting quarterback Kyle Allen to the bench, and they did it without their top player Robert Nkemdiche, who sat with a concussion. The former No. 1 overall recruit is expected back and his presence takes the Rebels’ D to another level. Ole Miss has had problems holding on to the football this season and the Tigers desperately need to win the turnover battle. That still won’t guarantee success. Texas AM created four Rebels’ turnovers last week and failed to turn them into anything. But at least the Tigers will have a chance if they can steal a few possessions. Auburn will be inspired by playing at home, but Ole Miss will score enough points to outpace the Tigers, who haven’t found that consistency on offense under Sean White.
Ole Miss 31, Auburn 24
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Ole Miss -5 with a total of 59. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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