When making out the schedule, Ole Miss thought they would have a cupcake non-conference game before a five-game stretch against SEC teams to end the season. That’s not the case anymore. The 13th-ranked Rebels travel to face unbeaten Memphis on Saturday in an intriguing matchup featuring two of the top five scoring teams in college football.
ODDS
Ole Miss opened as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 67. The Tigers are 2-2-1 ATS this season and will be an underdog for the first time. They easily cashed the over in their first four games before falling below the total in a 24-17 win at South Florida on Oct. 2. The Tigers have played above the total in seven of their last eight home games and the over has value in this one, even though the number spiked to 69.
KEY MISMATCH
Under fourth-year head coach Justin Fuente, Memphis has undergone an offensive resurgence, ranking in the top 12 nationally in scoring offense, passing offense and total offense. Just how good have the Tigers been offensively this season? Only Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU, where Fuente served as offensive coordinator before taking over a slumping Memphis program in 2012, are putting up more points per game than the Tigers’ 48. The No. 1 weapon is third-year starting quarterback and NFL prospect Paxton Lynch, who operates the controls of the 12th-ranked passing offense that averages 335 yards per game. The strong-armed junior has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of his last four games and has 10 touchdowns without an interception on the season. The Rebels’ defensive numbers were helped by limiting Tennessee-Martin and New Mexico State to a field goal each. The unit was torched for 38 points in a loss to Florida and allowed 37 in a win at Alabama. For the year the Rebels allow 19.7 points per game and just 203.5 passing yards.
KEY STAT
47.2 – Memphis’ third-down conversion rate. The Tigers rank 14th nationally and have been efficient on fourth down as well, converting five of six attempts. Mississippi allows opponents to convert 39.8 percent of the time to rank 84th in the country.
BETTING ANGLE
Memphis hasn’t lost in a calendar year, winning 12 straight games thanks to an explosive offense led by Lynch. Now they have a chance to knock off a regional rival and a team from the SEC. The schools are about an hour’s drive apart and the connections run deep. But much of the success recently has been one-sided in favor of Ole Miss. Memphis was off last week, giving the Tigers nearly two weeks to prepare for the game. In some ways, Ole Miss had an off week as well, breezing past New Mexico State 52-3 while resting several starters. Memphis’ rise to college football’s elite has gone largely unnoticed because their schedule hasn’t exactly included the finest programs. Ole Miss won last season’s matchup 24-3 in Oxford. But a win over the Rebels would give the Tigers a signature moment – and the national attention – it craves.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Don’t call Memphis a fluke. The Tigers are unbeaten with wins over Bowling Green and Cincinnati, and although last week’s seven-point win over South Florida left plenty to be desired, it’s quite possible they were looking ahead to their showdown with Ole Miss. The Rebels struggled to beat Memphis last season, leading just 7-3 after three quarters. They pulled away with 17 points late, but that game was in Oxford. This one is in Memphis’ backyard. Lynch completed 41.9 percent of his passes with a 5.1 quarterback rating in last season’s game. He’s a different player this season, but the Ole Miss defense presents similar challenges. Lynch will need to play out of his mind. If he does, the Tigers could pull the upset. Anything less will doom them. Coach Fuente and Lynch give the Tigers a chance to hang with anyone, but the Rebels won’t allow him to play his best game. It’s not a slam dunk, but take the points.
Mississippi 38, Memphis 31
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -9.5 in favor of the Rebels. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 67. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels and Memphis Tigers will take place Saturday, October 17, 2015, at 12 p.m. ET at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. The matchup will be televised live on ABC.
