Plenty of big schools had relatively easy schedules, but if it was so easy to go 13-0, everyone would do it. The only team to accomplish that this season is Clemson. And the unbeaten No. 1 team in the country can rally around the idea that no one believes in it, opening as a 3.5-point underdog with a trip to the national championship game on the line.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Clemson Tigers +3.5
Oklahoma Sooners -3.5
Over/Under 64.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Oklahoma would like nothing more than to avenge last season’s embarrassing loss to Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl and end the Tigers perfect season. It won’t be easy, but nothing was handed to the Sooners after starting Week 10 ranked-15th in the nation. OU is 9-3 ATS this season facing some lofty point spreads and went 6-1 ATS down the stretch. Two teams that can score points in bunches makes the over an enticing bet.
KEY MISMATCH
There’s no disputing the fact that the two top quarterbacks in the country are playing in this contest as Clemson’s Deshaun Watson finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield placed fourth. OU, however, is more balanced on the offensive side of the football with receiver Sterling Shepard and running back Samaje Perine complementing Mayfield’s prowess. The trio helped the Sooners average 52 points during their seven-game winning streak. Mayfield passed for 3,512 yards and 30 touchdowns and rushed for 420 yards and seven scores. Shepard is the main threat in the passing game with 79 receptions for over 1,200 yards and 11 scores. Perine has proven just as elusive out of the backfield with 1,291 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. With 3,004 career rush yards, he joined Adrian Peterson as the only players to top 3,000 in their first two seasons at OU. Clemson’s defense all of a sudden struggled in its last two games, surrendering big yardage to South Carolina and North Carolina.
KEY STAT
-2 – Clemson’s turnover margin. It’s surprising for an undefeated team to have such a poor differential and the Tigers can ill afford to lose the battle against the Sooners, who are plus-10 in turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
The Big 12 has been knocked around in recent years for being either not very good or, in the case of 2014, being so top-heavy that no one else really mattered. The selection committee overlooked the conference last year in favor of more deserving teams. Oklahoma had to convince a lot of people it belonged among the nation’s elite following a loss to Texas in October. All the Sooners did since is go 7-0 scoring more than 40 points six times. OU tested itself with games against Tennessee and perhaps the most difficult three-game stretch any team faced this season versus Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. Sure, the Bears and Frogs were without their starting quarterback, which does count for something, but if there is a penalty against the Sooners there, what do we say for their 35-point win at Oklahoma State?
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Be extremely disappointed if this isn’t a shootout that sets the tone for a wild New Year’s Eve. Watson is a remarkable talent and didn’t even play when the teams met in last season’s Russell Athletic Bowl, a 40-6 Clemson thumping. But that was last season, and the stakes are much higher now. Both defenses will come up with big moments, but the quarterbacks will each get red hot. Oklahoma’s running game is stronger with Perine running behind a mammoth offensive line, and that will allow the Sooners to take control in the second half. Clemson has the high-powered offense and aggressive defense to make up for most mistakes, but turnovers are an issue. It’s okay to mess up here and there against the Wake Forests and Syracuses of the world, but turning the ball over won’t get it done against the Sooners. OU will take advantage and move on to the National Championship game with an exciting victory.
Oklahoma 42, Clemson 35
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