Oregon visits Michigan State in the season’s first top-10 showdown, a rematch of an early season barnburner from last year. Both teams showed weaknesses in their openers, perhaps looking ahead to this marquee matchup. The Spartans’ only two losses last season came against the national championship game combatants, and that should supply plenty of motivation.
ODDS
Michigan State opened as 2.5-point chalk and the spread was wagered to -4. The Spartans flew under the Big Ten radar with the national champs at one rival and a big name coaching hire at another. But the Spartans may well be the best of the group. I like Sparty minus the points. The total has come down to 65 from its opening of 67.5, opening the door for some coin in this one. There should be no shortage of offense.
KEY MISMATCH
Michigan State was lax in its kickoff coverage against Western Michigan last week, allowing Darius Phillips to average 46.3 yards per return, including a 100-yard touchdown scamper. Phillips totaled 185 yards on four returns that also included a 70-yarder on the opening kick to set up WMU with an immediate scoring opportunity. Any problems in kickoff coverage against the Ducks could be devastating. Byron Marshall averaged 33 yards in three returns against Eastern Washington last week. We can also expect Charles Nelson to get some opportunities. The Ducks’ most dangerous ball handler last year should play after missing the opener with an injury. While the Spartans were able to overcome their deficiencies against Western Michigan, they probably won’t against the Ducks with field position being a huge factor in what should be an evenly-matched game.
KEY STAT
438 – Passing yards allowed by Oregon last week. The Ducks watched two Eastern Washington quarterbacks throw for 438 yards and five touchdowns against a secondary that had three underclassmen starting. Imagine what Connor Cook could do against that.
BETTING ANGLE
Revenge can be a huge motivator. Michigan State went into Autzen Stadium last year and outplayed the Ducks, building a 27-18 lead in the third quarter before the roof caved in. Oregon exploded for 28 points and captured a 46-27 victory, eliminating the Spartans from the title picture. “That loss last year stunk and it stuck with us,” said quarterback Connor Cook, who threw for 343 yards and two touchdowns in that game. Michigan State also lost to Ohio State, its only two defeats of the year, and watched those teams play in the national championship game. “Seeing those two teams playing for the national championship wasn’t the best thing,” Cook added. The Spartans say they’re better prepared – particularly for the tempo of Oregon’s offense – this time around and learned valuable lessons from last season’s game.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Neither team was overly impressive in their season-opening wins, possibly looking ahead to this showdown. The Ducks did what they wanted offensively, racking up 731 yards, and new quarterback Vernon Adams looked comfortable running the offense. But there were way too many holes defensively. Eastern Washington, which lost Adams to a transfer, managed 549 yards and shredded a rebuilt secondary. The Ducks looked lost and I doubt a week of preparation is going to fix the issue. Cook will take the Spartans up and down the field and as long as they don’t turn the ball over, they should get their revenge.
Michigan State 42, Oregon 37
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Spartans were pegged as 2.5-point chalk while the total opened at 67.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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