After starting the season 3-0 against a weak non-conference schedule and climbing into the top 20 in the national polls, the Wildcats have been stomped by UCLA at home and Stanford on the road in back-to-back weeks to start Pac-12 play. Not what the faithful in Tucson expected from this group. Arizona will be without All-American linebacker Scooby Wright and quarterback Anu Solomon is recovering from a concussion. We saw how well not having those two in the lineup worked out for the Wildcats the last two games.
ODDS
Arizona hit the board as 10.5-point chalk but that number was wagered down to its current -8.5. The Wildcats are reeling and have lost six straight at home to OSU. The total opened at 64.5 and came down to 61.5 with the uncertainty surrounding Anu Solomon.
KEY MISMATCH
Arizona’s defense has been ripped to shreds the last two weeks and the Beavers come into town led by true freshman Seth Collins, one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in college football. Oregon State saw some good things from Collins, who passed for 275 yards and a touchdown while rushing for another score when the Beavs fell to Stanford in their last game. Collins’ progress has been steady. He has thrown for 581 yards and five scores overall. He’s also one of three quarterbacks in the league to have rushed for more than 100 yards in a game – and he’s done it twice. Collins is averaging 76.5 yards on the ground, ranking him eighth in the Pac-12. “For a freshman quarterback, I don’t know what more you could ask for,” coach Gary Andersen said. The Wildcats allowed 111 points the last two weeks and rank 106th nationally in scoring defense, 103rd in passing defense and 97th in rushing defense. It also doesn’t help that star linebacker Scooby Wright has missed much of the season with a foot injury and isn’t expected to play Saturday.
KEY STAT
35.2 – Average points allowed by Arizona. The Wildcats endured their worst two-game stretch since 2003 allowing 111 points combined in back-to-back games. The Beavers average 23.0 points per game and averaged 29.5 in their last two.
BETTING ANGLE
The Beavers are presented with a great opportunity to pull off an upset. Arizona certainly looks vulnerable, given their struggles with injuries and their recent performances against quality competition. And Oregon State’s offense has shown signs of progressing behind Collins. The Beavers have one of the youngest teams in college football with less than a dozen returning seniors on scholarship. Having an additional week to rest and work on new offensive and defensive schemes implemented by new coach Gary Andersen should be a boost for the youthful team. The bye week came at a good time, according to Andersen. OSU will be battling the elements in the early afternoon game in the desert, where the temperature will be pushing 100 degrees on the field. And the Beavers need to prove they can go into a tough road environment and win.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Arizona certainly is a different team without its defensive leader and starting quarterback in the lineup. And it didn’t help that they played two very good teams without Wright and Solomon. They might have lost those games with their stars in the lineup, but without them they didn’t have a chance. Now the schedule gets a little easier with Oregon State starting a stretch that includes games with Colorado and the Washington schools. Solomon is a difference-maker and getting him back helps the offense. UA is a one-dimensional team with Jerrard Randall at quarterback and his dimension was compromised last week with a hamstring injury. Whoever starts at quarterback should have an easier time against the Beavers, who allow a bunch of points and rushing yards. Nick Wilson will be the difference running the football and the Wildcats will hold on for a closer than anticipated victory over the improving Beavers.
Arizona 27, Oregon State 24
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Arizona -10.5 with a total of 64.5. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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