Northwestern isn’t pretty. There’s no passing game, nothing flashy, and few big plays from the offense. Yet the Wildcats can do something no team in NU football history has done – win 11 games in one season. It will be a monumental task against a talented Tennessee squad that has close losses to Oklahoma and Alabama, two teams competing for the national championship.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee Volunteers -8
Northwestern Wildcats +8
Over/Under 45.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Both teams enter riding five-game winning streaks, with Tennessee overcoming a rough start. The Vols lost four of their first seven – all by seven points or fewer – and led Alabama in the fourth quarter before allowing a late touchdown. The line was wagered to Tennessee -8.5 while the total jumped to 47.
KEY MISMATCH
Special teams play could be a major factor in this game, especially in favor of Tennessee, which boasts six return touchdowns this season – three on punts and three on kickoffs. Evan Berry took three kickoffs back for scores and averaged a national-best 38.3 yards per return. Cameron Sutton, who led the nation with 18.7 yards per return among players with at least 20 attempts, is the main cog in the punt return game. Sutton took a pair of punts to the house and Alvin Kamara also has a touchdown on a punt return. Kamara had two more punt return touchdowns nullified by penalties. Tennessee led the nation in kick returns while ranking second on punts. Northwestern is 56th in kick return coverage, allowing 20.7 yards per return. The big performance helped Tennessee’s special teams coach Mark Elder get his first head coaching job at FCS Eastern Kentucky.
KEY STAT
21.2 – Tennessee’s points per game allowed. The Vols’ 25th-ranked scoring defense faces a Northwestern offense that scored 20.7 points per game and ranks 112th nationally.
BETTING ANGLE
The Outback Bowl selection committee certainly knows how to pick its contestants. The bowl game has been one of the most exciting in recent years and the 2016 version should be no different. The last four Outback Bowls were decided by just one score, including an overtime victory for Wisconsin over Auburn last year and a thrilling triple-overtime win for Michigan State over Georgia in 2011. Both Tennessee and Northwestern enter the contest riding five-game winning streaks and both have been solid at the betting window lately. The Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven while the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS during their regular-season ending five-game SU win streak.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Tennessee’s problems have been in the fourth quarters of games, but the offense has been great early on outscoring teams 132-52 in the first quarter and 129-60 in the second. There’s no real threat of a collapse late against a punchless Northwestern team that doesn’t have any sort of pop to the passing game, isn’t built to come back, and has only scored 51 points in first quarters this season. The Wildcats have only thrown for over 200 yards once this NCAAF season with 256 yards and three scores against Ball State, and didn’t crank up more than one touchdown pass in any game against anyone else. Northwestern is built on defense, not offense, so those numbers aren’t surprising. The D is the real deal and if The Vols don’t show up they could be in for a rude surprise. NU does all the little things right, but so does Tennessee. The Vols are solid on turnovers, don’t get flagged and have great special teams. What the Wildcats do to win won’t work in this one.
Tennessee 27, Northwestern 17
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