USC was picked to be in the Pac-12 title game at the beginning of the season. The Trojans just took a circuitous route to get there. A loss to Stanford in Week 3 was the beginning of the end for former coach Steve Sarkisian. Clay Helton stepped in three weeks later and the Trojans rallied around their new coach to earn their first title game appearance. Stanford was sharp in beating USC back in September. Just because time has passed, doesn’t mean the sequel will be any different.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford Cardinal -3.5
USC Trojans +3.5
Over/Under 61
ODDS ANALYSIS
Stanford comes into the Pac-12 title game red-hot at covering the spread, going 11-4 ATS in its past 15 contests. The line was wagered to Stanford -4.5. The total tumbled two points to 59 and is well within reach for two teams with plenty of play-makers.
KEY MISMATCH
This is not a typical Stanford D. And Helton is eager to exploit it. The Cardinal is uncharacteristically soft this season, sitting 85th nationally in yards per play allowed. In the win over the Irish, David Shaw’s kids gave up 533 yards, almost 300 of which came on the ground. Helton has leaned on the backs a little more over the last seven games, and there’ll be no reason to change course. USC will pound it right at the front seven with the trio of Tre Madden, Justin Davis and Ronald Jones. When Jones is in the backfield, chances are it’s a run for the fabulous freshman. While that’s likely because he’s not quite up to par when it comes to pass protection or catching the ball, it’s OK because of what he can do with the football. In terms of home run hitters, Jones is a threat to reach the end zone every time he touches the ball. The Trojans churned out 235 rushing yards on UCLA last Saturday, which helps decongest defenses for veteran quarterback Cody Kessler to locate JuJu Smith-Schuster, the best receiver in this game. Banged-up in the secondary, Stanford has been a little soft in coverage the last three games.
KEY STAT
+13 – USC’s conference-leading turnover margin. The Trojans have turned the ball over a Pac-12 low 10 times this season. Stanford is minus-1 in turnover differential and has a league-worst 11 takeaways.
BETTING ANGLE
The Cardinal still have an outside shot at the playoff, but would need to beat USC in the Pac-12 title game and see Clemson or Alabama – and possibly both – lose on conference championship weekend. Stanford capped the regular season with a last-second field goal to best Notre Dame 38-36 giving four points at home. The Trojans managed to reach the Pac-12 final after firing Sarkisian midseason. Southern Cal won five of its last six games, including a 40-21 rout of archrival UCLA as a 3-point home chalk. The program was stabilized by interim coach Clay Helton, who was given the job permanently earlier this week. The teams met in Week 3, with the visiting Cardinal taking a 41-31 win and cover as a healthy 9.5-point pup. While technically a neutral site, the game will be played at Levi’s Stadium, about a 20 minute drive – without traffic – south on Highway 101 from Stanford’s campus.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Cardinal has plenty of play makers, too, namely Christian McCaffrey, who leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game. Last week, Notre Dame sold out to stop McCaffrey, and was successful. But quarterback Kevin Hogan made the Irish pay over the top. Stanford sketched a perfect game plan for USC when the teams met in September, mixing the running of McCaffrey and Remound Wright with the accurate passing of Hogan to control the ball for nearly 40 minutes. It was vintage Cardinal football behind one of the country’s most physical offensive lines. USC has been inconsistent on defense, and is without injured linebackers Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson on the second level, leaving lanes open for the run game. USC will ride the emotion of its first trip to the conference title game, and the first game period since Helton was named permanent head coach. But that will last for only so long. The Cardinal will wear USC down with its punishing style and come away with the title in what should be an old fashioned shootout.
Stanford 38, USC 33
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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The contest between the Stanford Cardinal and USC Trojans will take place Saturday, December 5, 2015, at 7:45 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
