It wasn’t the New Year’s Six bowl game Florida State was looking to play in after competing for a national championship the last two seasons. The Seminoles better not overlook the Houston Cougars, who are playing in a marquee bowl game against a Power Five opponent with a chance to make a bold statement.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida State Seminoles -6.5
Houston Cougars +6.5
Over/Under 54.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Florida State is riding a five-game ATS win streak and is a healthy 8-4 ATS for the season. The line was wagered a half-point to FSU -7. Houston is fine playing the underdog role, winning outright both times this season. The Cougars knocked off ACC Louisville 34-31 on Sept. 12 as a 13.5-point dog and hammered Navy 52-31 as a 1-point pup.
KEY MISMATCH
Houston has the better quarterback on the field in this game, but that’s about it. Greg Ward Jr. does everything for the Cougars. He completed 68.1 percent of his passes for 2,590 yards, 16 touchdowns and only five interceptions, directing an offense that scores 40.6 points per game. He’s a threat on the ground as well, rushing for a team-high 1,041 yards and 19 touchdowns. Florida State has the defensive speed to contain Ward, and their edge at the line of scrimmage will be immense. Houston was starting three freshmen on the interior at the end of the year, a major concern when facing All-ACC D-linemen DeMarcus Walker, Nile Lawrence-Stample and Derrick Nnadi. FSU is the first team since 2011 to hold each regular season opponent to fewer than 25 points and is ranked fifth in scoring defense.
KEY STAT
+17 – Houston’s turnover margin. The Cougars have an AAC-best 30 takeaways and rank second nationally in differential. Florida State has turned the ball over just 10 times and is 38th in differential with a plus-4 ranking.
BETTING ANGLE
Houston will be playing in its first major postseason game since the 1985 Cotton Bowl. Coach Tom Herman will have to make sure his team doesn’t get overwhelmed by the spotlight, especially facing one of the nation’s most storied programs. Florida State has gotten used to playing for national championships. Coach Jimbo Fisher considers the Peach Bowl a good consolation prize after coming up short in the playoff race. Fisher said it’s quite an accomplishment considering the inexperience of this team, which had to replace many of the stalwarts from last year’s squad that reached the College Football Playoff on the heels of a national championship run in 2013. Both coaches say a victory in this game would be an important step toward getting the 2016 season off to a good start, but a victory would probably mean more to Houston.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
If the Seminoles take Houston lightly, they will be upset. The Cougars are a good team and the program is on the rise under coach Tom Herman, who has been in his share of high-stakes contests as an assistant at Ohio State. FSU will go with Sean Maguire at quarterback over Everett Golson, but the main player is running back Dalvin Cook, who will be the best player on the field. Cook led the ACC in rushing yards and touchdowns and finished the season with four straight 100-yard games. Houston D is solid, but hasn’t faced a back as explosive as Cook. Florida State’s defense will control the line of scrimmage, wear down the Cougars and frustrate Ward, who will face tight passing windows against a secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Derwin James and Lamarcus Brutus. The Cougs will hang for a while before fading in the second half.
Florida State 34, Houston 24
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