A 7-1 finish in its final eight games has the Brigham Young Cougars rolling into the Poinsettia Bowl hot. They’re the favorites to win considering the Wyoming Cowboys have seemingly been going in the opposite direction. This will be the 78th meeting between these two squads with BYU holding a 14-game advantage.
Kickoff for this Poinsettia Bowl showdown is set for Wednesday, December 21, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium in sunny San Diego.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Brigham Young -8.5
Wyoming +8.5
Odds Analysis
We’ve seen a little movement on this spread since it was released, growing a half a point, up from the eight-point opening line as bettors are bullish on the Cougars, but it’s dangerous to undersell the Cowboys.
The trends, however, don’t look good for Wyoming. The Cowboys have dropped back-to-back games. Of course, the latest loss isn’t much a blemish as the Cowboys held the San Diego State Aztecs close in the Mountain West Championship Game.
Wyoming was seven point pups in that loss and they managed to cover the spread with a three point deficit. Over a larger sample size, the Cowboys have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
Over the course of the year though, it’s BYU that’s got the better ATS record, albeit just covering one more game. Over their last nine games, however, their 6-3 ATS mark is actually behind the Cowboys’.
Injury Report
Taysom Hill is out and Tanner Mangum is in under center for the Cougars. That’s huge for a team favored by more than a touchdown to go into a bowl game with your field general having thrown just 18-passes all year, seeing time in only three games.
While Mangum has looked good in his limited action, he’s not tested and battle proven this year. Of course, the QB is familiar with the system and isn’t exactly an untested freshman or anything. He filled in admirably for Hill a season ago throwing for 23 touchdowns and 3,377 yards while completing nearly 60-percent of his passes.
Magnum is a capable fill in and while he’s proven in the BYU system, this season’s team is different than last year’s squad and the dynamics of switching quarterbacks prior to a bowl doesn’t do the Cougars any favors.
Let’s also not forget these are two entirely different players with different styles. That’s important, too. When Magnum took over for Hill last year, the team was able to adapt to Magnum as a throwing quarterback, but this BYU team has played all year with Hill offering a dual threat under center. Magnum is arguably the better throwing quarterback, but this is an offense built on the run, not the pass, heaping plenty more pressure on the shoulders of Jamaal Williams who will be the lone significant threat in the Cougar backfield.
Now, the wrinkle in all of this is that the Cowboys don’t have a particularly dominating defense. They’re allowing 34.8 PPG to rank No. 105 in the nation. They’re also allowing 464 yards per game with much of the damage coming in the air. Perhaps, Magnum exploits a weak Wyoming secondary.
Player to Watch
With Hill on the sidelines, that leaves Josh Allen as the biggest dual threat quarterback in this game.
Allen has nearly 3,000 yards on the season and 26 touchdowns though he’s completed just 56.2-percent of his passes and has given up 13 picks. Allen, though, can extend plays and drives with his legs and has rushed for 485 yards and seven scores.
The rushing attack is the strength of this Wyoming team with Allen providing solid numbers in support of Brian Hill who has 1,767 yards and 21 touchdowns on 323 carries. He’s the workhorse in this offense, but with the BYU defense ranked No. 8 against the run, its Allen who is the big difference maker if the Cowboy’s offense is able to carry Wyoming to a bowl win.
Free ATS Pick
Don’t count on the Cowboys. Wyoming skidded a bit to the finish line, but they played well against San Diego State which refutes the surging BYU team versus skidding Wyoming rhetoric.
With BYU going to their backup quarterback, the Cowboys have a chance in this one. They’re also the underdogs by more than a touchdown. Take the points and look for the Cowboys to at least keep this as close as they kept the Mountain West title game, but Wyoming could also get the SU victory.
Hill puts the Cowboys over the top as he’s able to move the ball on the ground enough against a very good BYU rush defense. Allen, meanwhile, takes care of business as well.
College Football Odds: Wyoming 35, Brigham Young 33
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