The Northern Illinois Huskies had a really tough end of their season, losing home games against Ohio and Bowling Green to cost them a shot at the MAC title. However, it's not like the Boise State Broncos were in fine form down the stretch either, losing two of their last three games. These two perennial big time Group of Five schools could get together to make for a really entertaining Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Boise State Broncos -8
Northern Illinois Huskies +8
Over/Under 56
ODDS ANALYSIS
There generally isn't a huge difference between sharp and square in the bowl season, but this is a situation where NIU is clearly a bit sharp. The Broncos haven't moved from that -8 during the entire process of bowl game betting, but they're still garnering over 70 percent of the bets during that time.
The total of 56 has also held firm in the Poinsettia Bowl.
KEY MISMATCH
The big question is whether Northern Illinois can get anything out of its quarterback in this game. Drew Hare was such a big part of what the Huskies did on offense, and when he suffered a season-ending injury at the start of November, it was crippling.
Boise State's secondary has been good all year long, holding opposing quarterbacks to a rating of just 113.2.
The key for either Ryan Graham or Tommy Fiedler is to keep good tabs on the football. These two men aren't prolific passers, and the fact that neither is nearly as good with his legs as Hare was is a problem.
Joel Bouagnon is going to do his part for sure, and when he isn't on the field, Jordan Huff can bust some big time runs, too. However, the Broncos are going to stack the box for sure if they aren't afraid of the pass.
KEY STAT
3.9 – The number of yards per carry Bouagnon has averaged since Hare was knocked out for the season. This is a man who averages getting the ball well over 20 times per game, and the difference between four yards per carry and six yards per carry is huge.
BETTING ANGLE
The Broncos failed to cover each of their last four games against teams with winning records heading into the bowl season. Sure, they picked up a win over a "bowl eligible" 5-7 San Jose State team to wrap up the year, but this is a much different challenge than that was even though this should feel like a bit of a home game against NIU.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Let's not forget that the Broncos are playing without Ryan Finley as well. However, Brett Rypien has a great pedigree, and he's been under center basically the whole season preparing for this moment.
Still, Boise State is overhyped here. We do think that it's history of performing well in these bowl games is going to be enough to get the win, but eight is a slew of points.
As far as we're concerned, the difference between Bouagnon and Jeremy McNichols is negligible, and though Thomas Sperbeck is probably the difference maker at receiver for the Broncos, he isn't going to be able to cover this game all by himself.
Look for NIU to pull out some trickery to keep the ball moving on offense, and it'll do enough to cover this spread in the Poinsettia Bowl as a result.
Boise State 27, Northern Illinois 20
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