A below average defense will be tested on Friday night as the Eastern Michigan Eagles will have to deal with Ray Lawry and David Washington for a very strong Old Dominion Monarchs team in the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl down in sunny Nassau. This will be the Eagles third chance against the Monarchs in as many years. The Monarchs took the first two.
Watch this Bahamas Bowl matchup live on Friday, December 23, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Thomas Robinson Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Eastern Michigan +3.5
Old Dominion -3.5
Over/Under 64
Odds Analysis
There hasn’t been much movement on the spread since the odds opened on this game with the Eagles sitting at 3.5-point pups against what’s been a very strong Monarchs team.
In fact, Old Dominion hasn’t lost a game ATS since October 22 and is 7-1-1 ATS since topping Texas-San Antonio in Week 4.
Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, is 9-3 ATS this year, but the Eagles are just 2-2 ATS in their last four games.
Last Meeting
These two teams are more familiar with each other than most bowl matchups as they’ve seen each other now in three straight seasons.
At the beginning of last season, Old Dominion went on the road and toppled Eastern Michigan in a thrilling back-and-forth game, winning 38-34. In the Monarch’s win, Ray Lawry destroyed the Eagles’ defense, rushing for 223 yards and four touchdowns on 28 carries.
Lawry is again the focal point of the Monarch’s offense, rushing for 1,122 yards, but Jeremy Cox has also done well out of the backfield, rushing for 13 touchdowns to Lawry’s 11. Meanwhile David Washington has put together a very good season as well, throwing 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions.
While Lawry was the star last year, Washington could have a fun time against a weak Eastern Michigan secondary.
On the other side of the gridiron, the Eagles will be looking for revenge. They held the edge in last year’s loss in third down efficiency, total yards and time of possession, but were beat thanks in part to three turnovers.
Brogan Roback threw one of the picks in the loss. He’s tossed just six interceptions all year, but the team has still been picked off 16 times so the turnover could be troublesome once again. Eastern Michigan leans on the passing game, leaving the Eagles susceptible to picks.
Key Stat
The secret to Old Dominion’s run basically since the month of September as been, in part, their ability to avoid costly turnovers as they’ve won the turnover battle.
The Monarchs have gained 22 turnovers this season, picking off the opposition 10 times and forcing 12 fumbles. While those numbers are pretty solid for the Old Dominion defense, the real impressive number comes on the other side. They’ve given up just nine turnovers all season long, five interceptions and four fumbles.
That ability to hold on to the ball has allowed Old Dominion to post the fourth best turnover margin in college football at 13, topped only by Washington, Western Michigan and Ohio State. It’s no coincidence that two of those teams are in the College Football Playoffs.
It’s reasonable to expect this to come into play on Friday. After all, Eastern Michigan has been far less prudent, allowing the opposition to notch 16 interceptions against them. Despite that—and thanks to a good defense—they have a positive turnover margin at one, but that still pales in comparison to Old Dominion.
Free ATS Pick
Just getting to a bowl game is a huge accomplishment for Eastern Michigan. After all, this is a team that won just a single game last year. Given this season can already be considered a major success, the Eagles consequently may not be as motivated for a win.
In the end, the Monarchs offense is just too much for the Eagles to handle and Eastern Michigan doesn’t have the necessary firepower to keep up should this turn into a shootout.
The ability of Roback to put up big numbers for EMU is their best hope for a win. While he does well enough to keep the Eagles relevant into the fourth quarter, this one should go to Old Dominion. After all, they’ve got the offensive and defensive advantage based on season long stats.
College Football Odds: Old Dominion 35, Eastern Michigan 26
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