After a rocky 3-5 start, Middle Tennessee State won four straight games to improve to 7-5 and punch its ticket to the Bahamas.
A fifth straight win would seem apt as they go against a Broncos squad with six bowl appearances and no wins.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +2.5
Western Michigan Broncos -2.5
Over/Under 62.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The spread opened with the Broncos as 2.5-point chalk but now Western Michigan sits as the 4.5-point favorites. The total has also grown since the lines first opened and now sits at 63.5 after a one point bump.
To get here, the Blue Raiders beat the spread in four straight games, but the Broncos carry some strong history ATS, going 17-7 in their last 24 games though they’re a bankroll depleting 0-4 ATS in their last four December games.
For those betting on the total, the under has paid out in five straight Middle Tennessee games while the over is 4-1-1 in Western Michigan’s last six non-conference skirmishes.
KEY MISMATCH
Both offenses should be able to put together solid performances against a pair of defenses that each allows at least 25.1 PPG.
Offensively, Middle Tennessee is all about the passing game. Quarterback Brent Stockstill has completed two-thirds of his passes for 3,666 yards and 27 touchdowns to just eight interceptions.
He’s got a number of strong receivers with Richie James catching 99 passes for 1,208 yards and six scores and Ed’Marques Batties leading the team in touchdown receptions with 13.
The Blue Raiders rank No. 17 in college football in passing yards per game averaging 309.4. They’ll matchup against a Broncos’ defense that’s conceded 21 passing touchdowns.
On the flip side, the Broncos rank No. 21 in the nation in total offense with 480.9 yards per game and have done their damaged with a balanced attack.
Zach Terrell has put up similar numbers to Stockstill under center with a 66.8 percent completion percentage and an identical 27:8 touchdown to interception ratio. His total yardage passing is a bit below Stockstill, but Western Michigan’s rushing attack is better with 24 rushing touchdowns as a team, led by 12 from Jamauri Bogan.
KEY STAT
.475 – This is the third down conversion percentage for the Broncos this season, ranking the team No. 13 in the country in their 160 chances.
Western Michigan’s diverse offense has helped lead to this strong number and ability to extend drives as the team can lean on the pass in third and long and the rush in short down situations.
The Blue Raiders who lack the consistent ground game that the Broncos have are still pretty solid in third down situations, converting 42.6 percent of the time to rank No. 39 in the nation.
Of course, neither team is that great defensively in third down situations, though Middle Tennessee ranks slightly higher there.
BETTING ANGLE
Middle Tennessee’s defense looked atrocious early on, but as part of the team’s four game winning streak to close out the year, they turned it around in allowing just 14 combined points their last two games.
Let’s also not ignore the Broncos’ defensive playmakers. As a unit, they’re questionable, but Darius Phillips has five interceptions this season and returned one of them for a touchdown.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Middle Tennessee State has the momentum going into this college football game, but with both teams ranking similarly on defense and each boasting nearly identical passing games, the differential here is the rush.
We’ve yet to see the Blue Raiders deliver many big plays on the ground while the Broncos have shown the ability to move the ball in the air and on the ground. As a result, I look for Western Michigan to hold the offensive edge, but with the Blue Raiders’ playing better defense of late, they could be in for the upset.
Still, I’m banking on the multi-faceted Broncos’ offense in this one.
Western Michigan 33, Middle Tennessee State 27
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders and Western Michigan Broncos square off on Thursday, December 24, 2015, at 12 p.m. ET at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
