Michigan State continues to sit second in the AP Top-25 behind Ohio State. They remain undefeated SU, but have yet to come through the spread with them overinflated due to their ranking and strong play. Bettors siding with Purdue in this one will try to be the latest to take advantage of that trend.
ODDS
The Spartans opened as 24.5-point favorites when BookMaker released the spread on Sunday. Bettors, recognizing the inflated spreads in Michigan State games, took advantage of the high mark. It’s since dropped to a 21.5-point edge for the Spartans.
The total opened at 57 but has since been bet down to 56 with the public aware of what they’ll get from Sparty but still not sure of what the Boilermakers bring to the table offensively.
As for the spread, Purdue has beaten the spread in three of the last four times these teams have met with the fourth time being a push.
Of course, Michigan State has also yet to beat the spread this season and the Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games though they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
Purdue, meanwhile, has struggled ATS, too. The Boilermakers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games. They do often get overlooked by odds makers against the better teams, though, and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last five when facing teams with a winning record.
KEY MISMATCH
The Spartans should be able to exploit the Boilers’ poor defense. Michigan State hasn’t exploded in any game, but have consistently put up more than 30-points.
The reason that Michigan State hasn’t been able to beat the spread has been partially due to the offense’s ability to completely breakout, but more so due to the defense’s struggle.
The numbers suggest the Spartans are in the middle of the pack offensively, but the players are there to be much better than that.
Connor Cook should have a great game against the Boilermakers. He has 695 yards and eight touchdowns right now and will come up against a Purdue pass defense ranked No. 101 even with a lower level of competition.
KEY STAT
.490 – This is the conversion percentage on third down opportunities for the Spartans. While Michigan State’s total yardage hasn’t been overly impressive, it’s been consistent in scoring and has done well converting opportunities.
On the flip side, the Boilermakers are one of the worst teams at preventing third down conversions at .424.
BETTING ANGLE
The Boilermakers have traditionally played Michigan State close. They’ve beaten the spread in three straight and lost by just three points in 2009.
Michigan State hasn’t dominated their opposition so far and thus keep the chances of another close game open, but Purdue has shown very little on the young season. Even against lesser competition, the Boilermakers rank No. 99 in total defense and No. 63 in total offense.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We’ve seen flashes of everything from Michigan State this year, but they’ve yet to put it all together in a single game for all 60-minutes. When that happens, this team could be very scary to face.
Michigan State can score and the Purdue defense isn’t likely to be able to hold them. That said, they failed to cover against Central Michigan last week despite a 17-0 lead earlier in the game. From that point on the Spartans only outscored the Chippewas by three.
I don’t feel great about this, but with the spread dropping down to 21.5-points, I think the Spartans capture their first pointspread win of the year. They’ve got the edge in nearly every facet of the game and have more than enough to far exceed the spread if everything comes together.
Michigan State 42, Purdue 20
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Spartans were pegged as 24.5-point chalk while the total opened at 57. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans will start at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 3, 2015, at Spartan Stadium. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
