In a game featuring two strong running games, the Appalachian State Mountaineers and Toledo Rockets each enter play at 9-3, each capable to running up the points and both pretty evenly matched, making the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl a must-watch. This game will be close and full of excitement with a late touchdown deciding it in a nail bitter on Saturday.
This contest in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl will go down Saturday, December 17, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at the Cramton Bowl.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Appalachian State
Toledo
Odds Analysis
Watch the spread early to see who ultimately has to lay the points. In a game this close, it may be as simple as siding with the team that’ll give you a few points.
Toledo enters play having dropped its last two games ATS and going just 3-5 ATS in its last eight, but the Mountaineers have hardly been better. They did cover in their season finale, beating New Mexico State 37-7 to cover the 20-point spread, but otherwise had dropped three straight ATS.
Matchup to Watch
Whichever team wins the ground game, winnings the game.
Appalachian State has a solidly average offense with 29.1 PPG and 431.1 yards per game, but there’s a big spread between the passing attack and the ground game with the team ranking No. 14 in yards on the ground, but No. 104 in the air.
In the passing game, Taylor Lamb has a reasonable 62.5-percent completion percentage and 14:8 touchdown to interception ratio, but it’s all about Jalin Moore and, to a lesser extent, Marcus Cox. Between those two and Lamb, the team’s gotten 26 rushing touchdowns. As for yardage, both Moore and Cox are gaining at least 6.2 yards per carry with Moore totaling 1,367 yards as the lead back and Cox gaining 854 in a change of pace role.
Toledo offers a more challenging rush defense than the Mountaineers have been used to seeing, but still the Rockets are allowing 165.7 rushing yards per game to rank just in the middle of the herd in college football.
Flip to the other side and Toledo actually has a very good passing game to support a strong rushing attack. The Rockets are the better offensive club with 38.8 PPG and the fourth most total yards per game in the sport. Logan Woodside is way better than Lamb under center. He’s got 3,882 yards and 43 passing touchdowns, but on the ground, it’s Kareem Hunt who will try and keep up with the tandem of Moore and Cox. Hunt has 1,355 yards and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He’s got just eight rushing touchdowns, however, as Toledo finds its way into the end zone in the air far more than on the ground.
Key Stat
As noted above, Woodside is where Toledo gains a clear edge over Lamb and the Mountaineers, but a strong defense helps push this back towards an even matchup.
The Appalachian State secondary has accounted for 20 interceptions and while the defense has managed just a single fumble recovery, those 21 turnovers gained help the Mountaineers rank No. 14 in college football with a turnover margin of eight.
The Mountaineers have allowed just 13 turnovers on offense all season long, largely due to the team’s insistence on moving the ball on the ground as much as possible.
While Woodside is very accurate and has a strong touchdown to interception ratio, the Rockets have still surrendered the ball 14 times while nabbing just 10 turnovers from the opposing offenses.
Free ATS Pick
When it’s all said and done, look for a high scoring affair on Saturday with both lead running backs racking up yardage. With the offense the name of the game in this showdown, look for Woodside to lead the Rockets to victory with a late touchdown drive to outlast Appalachian State.
Don’t look for the Rockets’ rough outing against Western Michigan last time out to have much bearing on this game. Instead, count on Woodside to build off his second best passer rating in college football with another dominating game. He avoids giving the ball up more than once to this strong turnover-driven defense and helps drive to victory in a high scoring game.
College Football Odds: Toledo 43, Appalachian State 38
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
