It's been a banner year for the Appalachian State Mountaineers. They've come a long way from when they were pulling off massive upsets against Michigan in the Big House as an FCS side, the showcase of which is the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl against the Ohio Bobcats.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio Bobcats +9
Appalachian State Mountaineers -9
Over/Under 54
ODDS ANALYSIS
Sun Belt teams largely didn't have a chance this year against App State, and now, Ohio is learning just how tough this matchup can be.
The Bobcats are getting 8.5 now after opening up at +9 for the Camellia Bowl.
The total has held firm at 54.
KEY MISMATCH
Good luck trying to slow down this App State rushing attack. Taylor Lamb might get a lot of credit for throwing 29 TDs, but Marcus Cox, Jalin Moore and Terrence Upshaw combined for over 2,300 rushing yards this year and.
Cox in particular is a real home run hitter. He had 14 carries for 192 yards in his last game of the year against South Alabama, and he had at least 74 rushing yards in all of his games this season.
Can Ohio stop the run at all in this game? We sincerely doubt it. The MAC isn't known for its physicality like maybe some of the other top conferences in America, and though the Bobcats have a good defense by their conference standards, we just don't see them being able to figure out how to stop this spread rushing attack.
KEY STAT
20.2 – The number of points per game the Mountaineers have averaged in the first half this year. This is a team which comes out of the blocks with guns blazing in the first and second quarters, and often times, lesser competitors have been out of the game by the time halftime rolled around.
BETTING ANGLE
The Bobcats have played in bowl games in five of the last six seasons, but they don’t exactly have a stellar history. They did whip Louisiana Monroe in the 2012 Independence Bowl, but take that out, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl game trips.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Ohio deserves a lot of credit for winning eight games this year, not the least of which was a 26-21 win on the road against Northern Illinois to close the regular season.
However, there have been a lot of results which have us concerned. Bowling Green, Buffalo and Western Michigan all dropped at least 41 on their defense.
We have a feeling that the Camellia Bowl is going to be a heck of a lot of fun, but only if both J.D. Sprague and Derrius Vick are able to come back and run this offense. The Bobcats are innovative and pull out a lot of stops, and we're going to clearly see those gadgets early and often.
In the end though, App State is the far safer bet. Both Vick and Sprague are questionable for this game with injuries, and we'd much rather lay more than a touchdown against either of these quarterbacks than take the nine and risk being left with a third-stringer.
The Mountaineers will do their scoring regardless, and we think they have enough power in that ground game to win the Camellia Bowl by double digits.
Appalachian State 45, Ohio 28
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