Pasadena has become a second home for coach David Shaw’s Bay Area powerhouse. The Cardinal will be playing in the Granddaddy of the Them All for the third time in four years as champs of the Pac-12. Iowa’s undefeated season ended at the hands of Michigan State in the Big Ten title game, falling four points shy of earning a CFP berth.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa Hawkeyes +7
Stanford Cardinal -7
Over/Under 49.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Iowa was four points away from making the College Football Playoff, and instead squares off against the Pac-12 champs. The Hawkeyes have struggled against Pac-12 opponents, going just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against the conference. The total saw a significant bump from its opening number, getting up to 54. Stanford has scored at least 30 points in every game since its opener.
KEY MISMATCH
Iowa can expect a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey, who rushed for 1,847 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 549 receiving yards and four more scores through the air. “He’s the best player in the nation,” Stanford coach David Shaw told reporters after McCaffrey recorded 461 yards in total offense against USC in the Pac-12 title game. The Heisman Trophy runner-up gained more all-purpose yards in a season than anybody in the history of college football with 3,496, breaking Barry Sanders’ 1988 record of 3,250. Stanford will need to diversify its approach against a stubborn Hawkeyes’ defense, but McCaffrey will be the deciding factor, working behind an imposing offensive line. While the Cardinal has playmakers spread around the field, there’s no player as indispensable as McCaffrey. There isn’t anything he can’t do on offense, and there’s very little that opposing defenses have proved they can do to stop him.
KEY STAT
+12 – Iowa’s turnover margin. The Hawkeyes tied for eighth nationally in differential amassing 26 takeaways. Stanford turned the ball over just 12 times this season but also had just 12 takeaways and is even in differential.
BETTING ANGLE
Iowa began the season almost as an afterthought in the Big Ten, but the Hawkeyes can be dangerous when underestimated and proved it this season, running the table on their way to the West Division title. They missed the big boys from the East during the regular year and were knocked for their relatively easy schedule. But consider that the Hawkeyes put a thorough beating on Northwestern, beating the Wildcats on the road 40-10 on Oct. 17. It was Northwestern that put Stanford in a big hole at the start of the season with a 16-6 win in the opener on Sept. 5. Iowa isn’t sure if leading rusher Jordan Canzeri, who is dealing with an ankle injury, will play in the Rose Bowl. Additionally, the Cardinal played a top 15 schedule while the Hawkeyes did not.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Stanford is a lot like Iowa in a number of ways, only with more pizzazz, using a strong defense, a creative rushing offense and brilliant line play to pave the way for McCaffrey. The Cardinal is also used to the Rose Bowl spotlight, which could be a factor. The Hawkeyes must contain McCaffrey, and they can, with their stingy defense. But the Cardinal has other weapons that can make a difference. Iowa went unnoticed for most of the season, playing a schedule that didn’t include the monsters from the Big Ten East. The Hawkeyes battled Michigan State in the Big Ten title game and couldn’t get a stop when they needed it most, falling short of the CFP. While Iowa is the real deal, the Cardinal is a proven winner and won’t let missing the CFP get in the way of representing the Pac-12.
Stanford 27, Iowa 23
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