You have to go back over five decades to find the last time the Iowa Hawkeyes won the Rose Bowl. They've got a real opportunity here to shine on the big stage against the Stanford Cardinal in a battle of teams which came up just shy of the College Football Playoff.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford Cardinal -7
Iowa Hawkeyes +7
Over/Under 49.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
There's definitely been some interesting line movement here in the Rose Bowl. Stanford is perceived to be the better of these two teams in spite of its two losses on the season, and it opened up at -7 as a result. However, the line has since dipped just a bit to the Cardinal -6.5, a notable drop considering the fact that Iowa is garnering just 40 percent of the bets. The Hawkeyes are definitely at least modestly sharp.
The more interesting move though, might be on the total. It's not like these two teams are really known for their offense. Iowa's Big Ten Championship Game effort was prototypical, though obviously, the end result of just 22 total points was incredibly low, even by its own standards. However, the total in the Rose Bowl has come up drastically from an opening number of 49.5 to 53.5 as of the publication of this article.
WHEN THE STANFORD CARDINAL HAVE THE BALL
There's understandably going to be a lot of talk about Christian McCaffrey in this game. He's a monster out there and can turn this game on a dime as a rusher, a receiver and a kick returner. There's a reason he was a finalist to win the Heisman Trophy.
However, the Iowa rush defense is one of the best in America, and even a power rushing team like Michigan State was slowed down dramatically by the Hawkeyes.
That's not to say that McCaffrey isn't going to get his. It would be stunning if he had less than 100 total yards between rushing and receiving as well as another 100 as a return man. However, for live bettors to be successful in this game for the Cardinal, Kevin Hogan is going to have to play well. Getting behind schedule on downs and distance is a disaster for Stanford, and David Shaw has this tendency to make sure that doesn't happen often.
But can Hogan step up and make the throws on 3rd and 10? That's our real question. No wide receiver had more than 32 catches this year for the Cardinal, and someone, whether that be Michael Rector, Austin Hooper, Devon Cajuste or anyone else, will have to step up and help McCaffrey. A one-man offense isn't covering against Iowa.
WHEN THE IOWA HAWKEYES HAVE THE BALL
The Hawkeyes are who they are. They can't throw the ball in situations when they really need to, but they can sure run the ball with their plethora of backs.
Jordan Canzeri is the best of the bunch, but both LeShun Daniels Jr. and Akrum Wadley are capable of doing the job.
Again though, success in live betting is going to come down to whether C.J. Beathard can do anything with his arm. In Iowa's best wins this year, we've seen Beathard make about a half dozen great throws per NCAAF game to keep the chains moving or stick the ball in the end zone.
George Kittle is a great red zone threat, but stretching the field with Tevaun Smith is going to be key. If the Hawkeyes can hit three or four plays of at least 30 yards in this game, they're going to pull off the upset in the Rose Bowl and make live bettors really happy. If they can't though, this game is going to be a struggle against a Stanford defense which is much better than 374.5 yards and 23.1 points per game suggests.
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