Amongst the earlier bowls, this could be one of the more interesting matchups with traditional rivals BYU and Utah squaring off. Both teams enter play at 9-3, but it’s the Utes that own the head-to-head edge winning the last four meetings and the last three ATS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
BYU Cougars +2.5
Utah Utes -2.5
Over/Under 54
ODDS ANALYSIS
The oddsmakers opened the spread at -2.5 in favor of the Utes and that number has held steady here in the early going. The total, however, has seen a bit of movement, dropping half a point down to 53.5.
Coming into this game, the Utes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against winning teams. The underdog, however, is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these teams so there’s hope for Brigham Young.
KEY MISMATCH
There are a number of mismatches in this game as the team’s strengths don’t exactly line up.
Offensively, the Cougars rank No. 21 in the nation in passing yards while the Utes are far better against the rush. Against the pass, Utah is allowing 253.4 yards per game, well below average.
With BYU’s rushing game lackluster at best, there is a clear mismatch there, too.
Of course, freshman quarterback stepping in and performing well is a key to this team’s success. Tanner Mangum has thrown for 3,062 yards and 21 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions this season. He also threw four touchdowns without an interception in his last game against Utah State, and hasn’t thrown an interception in three straight games.
Offensively for Utah, the key is the ground game and stopping Devontae Booker. The talented running back has rushed for 1,261 yards and 11 touchdowns while quarterback Travis Wilson is mobile and gives the running game a second option. He accumulated 468 rushing yards and six scores on the year.
While the Utah running game is its strength, it’s not quite as much of a mismatch as the Cougar passing game as BYU can hold its own defensively both in the air and on the ground.
KEY STAT
.67 – This is the average turnover margin per games for the Utes. Utah ranks No. 18 in the nation in this category, forcing 29 turnovers on 10 fumble recoveries and 19 interceptions while turning the ball over 21 times themselves.
BYU, ranks pretty well, too, but is a bit lower at No. 27. Defensively, it’s been less prolific at forcing turnovers, but has also been better at holding onto the ball offensively with six fumbles and nine total interceptions.
BETTING ANGLE
BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall has been named the new head coach at Virginia. As such, this will be the coach’s final game at the helm for the Cougars.
Brigham Young will look to send off their coach with a win, giving them even more motivation if playing in a bowl game against a rival that’s had your number the last few seasons wasn’t enough.
After starting the year 2-2, Mendenhall was a big reason for the team’s turnaround as he helped shape a new identity for the Cougars on the fly.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The records are the same and based on the stats, these teams are different, but quite even.
The one difference that gives Utah a bit of a boost is its play against Pac-12 opposition. As a result, the Utes have been groomed for more difficult competition. Look for Booker to have a big game on the ground with Utah doing well enough against the freshman quarterback who could be a bit sporadic in his first bowl game under center.
Take Utah for the win both SU and ATS while the spread remains less than a field goal. The Utes have history on their side and Booker, the most talented player on the field.
Still, BYU’s a strong team with strong motivation. Look for them to keep the NCAAF game close throughout.
Utah 31, BYU 27
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