Heading north from South Beach to the land of theme parks in Orlando, the Miami Hurricanes will face off against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Russell Athletic Bowl just before the New Year. This will be the first meeting between these teams since 2003 when both squads were still a part of the Big East.
Watch this Russell Athletic Bowl matchup live on Wednesday, December 28, 2016, at 5:30 p.m. ET at Camping World Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
West Virginia +3
Miami (FL) -3
Over/Under 56
Odds Analysis
Miami gets to stay nice and toasty in Florida for their bowl game and that’s a significant factor in them being favored against a ranked opponent. The odds opened on BookMaker with the Hurricanes favored by a point and a half which has since grown to being favored by a field goal.
Along with location, the Hurricanes’ strong finish to the year plays a role, too. Miami won their last four games after snapping a four game losing streak in conference play, covering the spread in those final four game as well.
West Virginia, on the other hand, ended with a better 10-2 record SU, but were under .500 ATS and just 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Including failing to cover against Baylor, barely eeking out the win against the slumping Bears on December 3.
Player to Watch
Former Hurricane turned Mountaineer Antonio Crawford could be an important part of this game.
The talented corner back will be instrumental in helping to slow a surging Miami offense.
The Hurricanes have the advantage under center with Brady Kaaya who is coming off a 396-yards, four touchdown game against Duke. The junior QB has a plethora of talented targets in the passing game.
Overall, Miami’s passing game is the strength of this offense. On the ground, Mark Walton is good, but the Hurricanes are a middle-of-the-pack team in rushing yards per game.
The Mountaineers as a team rank No. 70 in college football in plays of 40-yards or more allowed while Ahmmon Richards, Stacy Coley and David Njoku all serve as potential deep threats for the Hurricanes.
It’ll be up to Crawford to shut down one side of the field. The passing game is a potential big hole if Crawford—or another member of the secondary—is unable to come up with a big interception or at least shutdown one of the big receivers. As a team, West Virginia is allowing 255.7 passing yards per game. That ranks them No. 99 in the nation.
The offensive line for Miami is also keep to minimize the West Virginia pass rush. The young group allowed 18 sacks in their first five games, but just six since as they’ve come together as a unit.
Key Stat
Both Miami and West Virginia have won the turnover battle against the opposition more often than not with the Hurricanes tied at No. 14 in turnover margin and the Mountaineers tied at No. 31. The two teams are separated by a net of merely three interceptions.
While the final result is very similar, the path to the final numbers is very different. Miami has turned the ball over 10 times all year while the Mountaineers’ positive margin is more of a result of its strong defense, nabbing 14 interceptions and 11 lost fumbles by the opposition.
One of these two will win out. Either the Hurricanes will continue to be stingy with the ball and avoid costly turnovers of the Mountaineers will be able to force Kaaya into a tough spot and capitalize.
Free ATS Pick
This is a balanced matchup. The Mountaineers have a slightly better—or at least more consistent—offense based on the overall numbers, but Miami boasts a slightly better defense.
A month and a half ago and this would have been an easy win for West Virginia, but the Hurricanes got themselves back on track after getting off course for a bit in the middle of the year. With four straight wins, including a couple big offensive performances, Miami is well positioned to put up quite a fight against the Mountaineers in their home state.
The Canes’ ability on special teams has really stood out over their latest winning streak and has helped them win the field position battle. That could be enough for the win now that Miami’s offense and defense have worked through their bumps midseason.
If the spread stays within a field goal, take the Hurricanes, but much more than that, take the Mountaineers as this figures to go down to the wire. Still, look for Miami to provide Kaaya enough protection and time to avoid Crawford down the field and find an open receiver for a few big plays.
College Football Odds: Miami 34, West Virginia 30
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