Can Auburn really be this bad? The Tigers’ shaky play has the natives panicking and the San Jose State Spartans ready to pounce for the biggest win in program history. The Spartans watched FCS Jacksonville State come into Jordan-Hare and nearly escape with a win before falling in overtime. The Tigers struggled in their last two games, prompting a quarterback change. Auburn is laying three touchdowns, which is a lot of points against a decent Spartans squad, and is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games.
ODDS
Auburn opened as a 20-point favorite with a total of 54. Auburn has failed to cover in all four games this season and nine straight dating back to last season. The spread is significant for a team that has struggled all season. Recent movement saw the line dip to -19.5 with the total spiking to 56.
KEY MISMATCH
Special teams errors didn’t cost San Jose State last week against an awful Fresno State team. But the Spartans can’t keep playing the same way in the third phase and expect to pull off upsets. The kicking combination of Austin Lopez and Bryce Crawford has converted only two of San Jose State’s five field goal attempts so far this season. They’ve also missed three extra-point attempts – the second most in college football behind Connecticut. The kicking game isn’t San Jose State’s only concern. Punter Michael Carrizosa leads the nation in punting average this season, but a nagging case of butterfingers on long snaps led to opponent touchdowns in the Oregon State and Fresno State games. The Spartans need to avoid any miscues in order to pull off this upset. If momentum shifts happen on special teams, they can’t swing in favor of Auburn.
KEY STAT
236.2 – San Jose State’s rushing yards allowed per game. Peyton Barber has been the lone bright spot in Auburn’s offense, rushing for 411 yards with three 100-yard games, through the first four contests.
BETTING ANGLE
Auburn will want to use this nonconference matchup as a way to get more confidence for new starting quarterback Sean White. And it’s imperative the Tigers get off to better starts on both sides of the football. After being shutout in the first half last weekend, Auburn’s offense still has only scored one touchdown prior to halftime this season. Last week against Mississippi State, the Tigers gave up an easy touchdown to Dak Prescott, who was perfect through the air on the opening drive. San Jose State isn’t going to be overwhelmed by Auburn because it was in the same spot last season against a better all-around group of Tigers. You know the Spartans will dig down for their inner Jacksonville State, after watching the lower-division Gamecocks take Auburn to overtime before succumbing in a game they led late. The best thing the Tigers can do is knock out the Spartans early and not let them hang around.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Auburn has been a mystery on offense this season, with Guz Malzahn’s up-tempo style slowed by inconsistent quarterback play. The team switched starters last week, replacing Jeremy Johnson with White for last week’s game against Mississippi State. White didn’t light up the scoreboard or stat sheet, but did enough to get another start. Things should be a little easier against a San Jose State team that has been gashed on the ground, giving up 236 yards per game. We should see a steady diet of Barber on the ground, allowing White to manage the game and take his shots off play-action. San Jose State will try and live on the ground also, with Tyler Ervin doing the heavy lifting. He ran for 300 yards last week against Fresno State and will need another big game. White gets more comfortable as the starter and the Tigers show a little more explosiveness on offense. It’s not enough to blow out the Spartans, but Auburn comes away with a win.
Auburn 34, San Jose State 21
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Tigers were pegged as 20-point chalk while the total opened at 54. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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