It’s the matchup the SEC has seen the most in its championship game when Florida and Alabama meet for the eighth time with the league title on the line. Only this one isn’t expected to be close with the Tide opening as 16-point chalk. Alabama can secure a spot in the four-team playoff with a win while the Gators look to snap the East Division’s six-year drought in Atlanta.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama Crimson Tide -16
Florida Gators +16
Over/Under 40.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Florida’s bid for a spot in the CFP was dashed with last week’s loss and the Gators haven’t looked good the last month, a big reason why the line was wagered to Alabama -17.5. The Tide is 6-3 ATS during its nine-game winning streak and 8-1 ATS in its past nine games against Florida. Three scores is a lot to give up in a championship game, but Alabama is clearly the better team and a good risk.
KEY MISMATCH
The Gators have been downright dismal on offense in recent weeks, averaging a little more than 12 points in regulation against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. And the Crimson Tide lead the league in just about every defensive category and have allowed a total of 41 points in their last four games. Forget about winning the game. Florida might be lucky to score against heavily-favored Alabama. Florida's offense failed to score in a 27-2 loss to the Seminoles last Saturday. The Gators had chances, but missed a field goal, had another one blocked and came up short on two fourth-down plays in the red zone. The result has Florida as the biggest underdog in the SEC title game since the Gators were favored by 24 against Arkansas in 1995. The Gators overachieved for sure. But they underachieved in November, at least offensively. Florida managed 262 yards on 79 plays last week, with just one of those going for more than 20 yards and quarterback Treon Harris struggled again. Coach Jim McElwain suggested that defenses have figured out Harris, who looked mostly lost last month. His indecision and inaccuracy have become as common as his roll outs and runs.
KEY STAT
14.3 – Alabama’s SEC-leading points per game allowed. The Tide lines up against a Florida offense that failed to score a touchdown last week and ranks 92nd nationally in scoring with 25.2 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
Clemson may be the No. 1 team in the college football playoff rankings, but the Tigers aren’t the team most expected to make it to the national semifinals. That would be Alabama, based on the opening lines for Saturday’s conference championship game. Nick Saban’s squad heads into the SEC title tilt as a 17.5-point chalk against Florida, according to BookMaker.eu. Bama is coming off a 29-13 victory laying 14.5 points at Auburn last week, its ninth consecutive SU win since a stunning home loss to Mississippi. It was also the fourth straight week that the Tide cashed for bettors. On the flip side, Florida is coming off its worst performance of the year. The Gators, 2.5-point home underdogs to rival Florida State, mustered only a safety in a 27-2 loss. That knocked them entirely out of the playoff picture, even if they somehow stun Alabama this week at the Georgia Dome.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Alabama has relied on running back Derrick Henry to carry the load and the Heisman front-runner has delivered. Look for much of the same against a Florida group that has looked tired and beat up as the Gators limped through November. Henry carried the ball a school-record 46 times for 271 yards against Auburn, his fourth 200-yard effort of the season against an SEC defense. Alabama just bullies teams up front on both sides of the ball. The O-line wears opposing defenses down clearing the way for Henry while the defensive front gets after the quarterback with relentless abandon. The Gators could hang for a half with their stingy defense, but a lack of production from Harris and the offense won’t give them time to catch a breather. The Tide will roll in the second half, opening this game up for a cover win.
Alabama 34, Florida 13
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Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Florida Gators and Alabama Crimson Tide square off on Saturday, December 5, 2015, at 4 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome. The matchup will be televised live on CBS.
