The college football season is officially upon us! It's really tough to want to bet on teams which are 35-point underdogs regardless as to whether we are talking about regular spread betting or live betting.
In this case though, taking the SMU Mustangs and all of those points against the Baylor Bears on the opening Friday of the season might be a good, albeit an incredibly brave idea.
WHEN THE BAYLOR BEARS HAVE THE BALL
The Mustangs have converted to a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, which we think will ultimately play better against a defense like this one in the long run. Yes, SMU had a -14 turnover margin last season thanks to this defense which just didn't create all that much in the way of opportunities, but regularly having the extra nickel back on the field will be more suitable to defending against the Baylor wide open attack.
It's also impossible to say that the Bears will surely be just as effective on offense this year as they were last season when they fell just short of the College Football Playoff. Bryce Petty is now in the NFL with the Jets. Yes, Seth Russell is a fourth-year senior, and yes, he has back his entire offensive line, two 1,000-yard receivers and his tailback from last year, but you can't necessarily just plug in any quarterback you want to any offense and assume that it is going to be okay.
Russell, while playing in relief of Petty when he was hurt last season, went just 48-of-85 for 804 yards and eight TDs, numbers which aren't quite as efficient as Petty's. Granted, having a full offseason to prepare as the starter should help, but Baylor's offense won't simply show up and score the seven touchdowns or more necessary to cover this game, which is why live betting when the number to beat is up in the five-TD range might be too good to pass on.
WHEN THE SMU MUSTANGS HAVE THE BALL
The Mustangs are going to look to run the ball a ton. Chad Morris has a scheme which isn't dissimilar to the West Virginia offense which Pat White ran so effectively at West Virginia for all those years. SMU is going to line up in the shotgun and try to get running backs through creases with some extra room to operate to pick out those holes.
Will the plan work in this game? It's really not all that likely when you think about it, but it's only going to take a TD or two from the Mustangs to at least try to stick inside of this number against Baylor.
Yes, trying to run 80 or 90 plays per game as Morris will do so is going to give Baylor's fun offense more chances to score, but if the Mustangs can move the chains every now and again, at least there will be an opportunity to keep that Bears offense off the field.
TREND TO TRACK
To say that Baylor has owned this series for years is an understatement. Since 1990, these two teams have met 10 times. Baylor is 10-0 SU and ATS, and it has averaged winning games by an average score of 41.1-11.4.
It's tough to imagine that the Bears are going to outdo the Mustangs by a 31-7 margin on first downs again in this game as they did last year, and surely, SMU is not going to have -24 rushing yards. As long as the Mustangs manage to run the ball a bit, the Bears are going to have a really tough time staying five touchdowns ahead, which is what they have to do. Live betting on SMU is probably one of the better bets you could make over the course of the weekend.
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this Friday soiree at the Baylor Bears -34 with a total of 73.5. Live wagering during commercials offers adjusted moneylines, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Need to fund your account before the big game but don’t have your computer? No problem! BookMaker Sportsbook now offers a mobile betting cashier so you can deposit money directly from your smartphone. Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet. Click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The war between the Baylor Bears and SMU Mustangs will take place Friday, September 5, 2015, at 7:00 p.m. ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The game will be televised on ESPN.
