Back in 2009, the Florida State Seminoles were reeling. Perhaps the bottom came when they were beaten at home by the South Florida Bulls in an ugly 17-7 game which also happened to mark the pinnacle of success for USF.
With the Seminoles back on top and the Bulls back in the middle of the pack in a middling AAC, the two teams will meet again in Tallahassee on Saturday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Florida State has opened up as one of the biggest favorites of the weekend at -27.5.
The Seminoles of course, crushed Texas State last week 59-16 to start off the post-Jameis Winston era at 1-0 SU and ATS.
South Florida is also 1-0 SU and ATS, but annihilating Florida A&M 51-3 didn’t exactly come as a surprise.
KEY MISMATCH
Last season, the South Florida offense had all sorts of problems throwing the ball. Mike White, Steven Bench and Quinton Flowers were all disasters. The three combined to average just 6.49 yards per pass attempt, and they threw for just 11 TDs.
Flowers, who only threw 20 passes last season, was tabbed the starter over Bench, and he did look good in his first outing of the year, going 12-of-16 for 141 yards with two TDs and a pick.
However, picking apart Florida A&M and picking apart Florida State are two totally different animals.
A high-octane Texas State team was held to 26-of-42 passing for 168 yards against the Noles in Week 1, and the move of Jalen Ramsey to cornerback has clearly paid dividends for a team which lost a ton of talent in the secondary the last two seasons.
KEY STAT
33.3 – South Florida's third down conversion percentage last week against FAMU. Last season, USF only ranked No. 93 in the land in third down conversions, and it could have an even bigger problem against a clearly superior defense.
BETTING ANGLE
The Seminoles might have gotten to the National Championship Game two seasons ago and the College Football Playoff last year, but they have had a heck of a bad time trying to cover against non-conference teams.
FSU did cover last week against the Bobcats, but that only made it 1-6 ATS in its last seven games since the title game against Auburn in January 2014.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Florida State is being overplayed here. Just as it isn't all that impressive that the Bulls knocked off Florida A&M, it isn't all that impressive that the Noles beat Texas State.
Everett Golson might have looked good in his debut with FSU, but Sean Maguire looked good too, and we already know that he isn't capable of playing against good teams. Golson and this offense almost can't end up being as good as it looked against a bad Texas State defense versus a South Florida team which laurels rest on the defensive side of the ball.
Though the Seminoles are going to win this game, we have a feeling this is going to end up being a game which gets away from the offense. The crowd at the Doak might end up leaving a bit unhappy in spite of the fact that Florida State will come out victorious.
Florida State 27, South Florida 10
BookMaker opened the spread for this Saturday game at -27.5 in favor of the Florida State Seminoles. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on your television with BookMaker's live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The game between the South Florida Bulls and the Florida State Seminoles will go down Saturday, September 12, 2015 at 11:30 a.m. ET at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium. The matchup will be televised on ESPN.
