Strong finishes to the season by both the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs earned each program a bowl bid despite a lackluster season overall. The two will meet on the gridiron in the St. Petersburg Bowl right after Christmas. This is the first time in the history of either school these two will square off with each carrying some momentum into the action.
Kickoff for this St. Petersburg Bowl game is set for Monday, December 26, 2016, at 11 a.m. ET at Tropicana Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami (OH) +13
Mississippi State -13
Over/Under 58.5
Odds Analysis
The Bulldogs enter play as heavy favorites. BookMaker opened the spread at 13.5-points, but it’s dropped half a point since. The total has also dropped half a point since opening.
Mississippi State wrapped up their season with a huge 55-20 win at Ole Miss to grab a bowl game despite a lackluster 5-7 season. The win snapped a two game losing streak SU and ATS, but was the second straight strong performance by the offense after they were shut down by Alabama.
Overall, the Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. They’ve been more consistent against the total with the over paying out in six straight games thanks to Mississippi State’s strong offense and terrible pass defense.
Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) failed to cover the spread in its last game of the regular season. Despite that, the Redhawks still closed out the year 5-1 ATS. The team has also won six in a row SU after dropping their first six to open the year.
Matchup to Watch
Even in the post-Prescott era for Mississippi State the Bulldogs are still able to score. Save for their game three-point performance against the best team in the nation, this team has scored at least 38 in their previous five contests.
With another strong performer under center in Nick Fitzgerald the offense is still prolific. After all, Fitzgerald has a 21:10 touchdown to interception ratio in the air and has added 14 rushing scores and 1,243 rushing yards on top of his 2,281 yards in the air.
All of that has led to a balanced attack centered on the QB. The issue for this team, however, has been on the defensive end of the ball.
The Bulldogs have been the center of a number of very high scoring affairs as a result of both the offense and the defense. They’re allowing 461.4 yards per game and 33.1 PPG, ranked No. 111 and No. 97 respectfully in those two categories; well below average in each.
The key struggle for the Mississippi State defense has been in the secondary. The front seven have been serviceable in comparison. Of course, there’s plenty of improvement to be made there, too.
Nevertheless, the key for Miami to get the upset will be their passing game. They need to take advantage of the porous secondary with a strong passing attack.
The Redhawks offense hasn’t been good, however. They’re scoring just 23.4 PPG and have been one of the worst teams in terms of total yards per game.
Despite those troublesome numbers, Miami does have a better passing offense than rushing attack; at least according to yards per game.
Key Stat
The Bulldogs have a prolific offense and they’ve been helped out by a very good turnover margin. As such, they’ve been able to avoid giving the ball up in key situations and have been able to buy themselves extra possessions and field position by forcing the other team to turn the ball over.
Mississippi State has forced 21 turnovers, including nabbing 13 interceptions. On the flip side, they’ve giving the ball up just 16 times.
While that positive turnover margin is encouraging for the Bulldogs, the Redhawks have done pretty well in this area, too, with the same number of turnovers forced and just two more allowed.
Free ATS Pick
Look for a huge game from Fitzgerald with him nabbing a couple scores both in the air and on the ground.
We saw what this team can do against the Rebels in their last game and Ole Miss is a better opponent than the Redhawks. Look for the Bulldogs to try and make a statement with this bowl win to show that do belong there despite a sub-.500 record.
This will be a high scoring game with Ragland putting up solid numbers under center to keep it competitive—at least for a time. In the end, take the Bulldogs, give the points and take the over.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State 45, Miami (OH) 27
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