UConn has one of the best defenses in the nation, but little offense.
Marshall’s strong offensive attack will get a chance to overcome the Huskies defense en route to its tenth win of the season and a bowl game victory.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Connecticut Huskies +5
Marshall Thundering Herd -5
Over/Under 44
ODDS ANALYSIS
The NCAAF odds have stayed relatively steady since BookMaker first released them with the spread holding firm at -5 in favor of the Herd. The only movement thus far is a small adjustment to the total, bumping it up half a point to 44.5.
The under has been rather successful in games the Connecticut defense partook in, going 10-2 in the Huskies’ 12 games this year. The under has done reasonably well in Marshall’s 12 games as well, paying out in eight of them.
KEY MISMATCH
The Huskies defense will keep them in the game, but the Thundering Herd’s defense is the one that’s part of a mismatch.
Defensively, Marshall is allowing only 18.4 PPG and allowing just 373.1 yards per game. The team’s performed particularly well against the pass, allowing just over 200 passing yards per game.
While not as dominant as the Huskies’ defense, Marshall’s should be plenty good enough to cause havoc against UConn.
Connecticut ranked No. 120 in total yards per game with just 318.4 and No. 118 in PPG, scoring only 17.8.
Bryant Shirreffs led the passing attack to just 193.8 yard per game. He’s overcoming a head injury, but should play on Saturday. Even so, while he’s completing 60.3 percent of his passes, he’s thrown for fewer than 2,000 yards and only nine touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Of course the ground game isn’t much better. Shirreffs does provide a bit of help with 428 rushing yards and three scores, but he’s averaging just 3.2 yards per carry while the top back - Arkeel Newsome - averages 4.4 yards per carry. Newsome, though, also had just a single yard on 13 carries in his last game.
KEY STAT
.781 – This is the red zone conversion rate for the Huskies, ranked No. 99 nationwide. Connecticut has made it to the red zone just 32 times all season, producing 15 touchdowns and 10 field goals, while failing to score seven times.
Marshall scored in 46 of its 56 overall chances.
Defensively, Marshall has been particularly stout on defense in the red zone, allowing just 19 touchdowns and 10 field goals the 40 times the opposition made it to the red zone against the Thundering Herd.
BETTING ANGLE
Marshall quarterback Chase Litton gives the team the advantage over UConn. Both teams have the defense, but only one has a sufficient offense.
Under center, Litton is completing nearly 60 percent of his passes for 2,390 yards. Those numbers are a bit low, but his 22 touchdowns to just seven interceptions are strong.
On the ground, Devon Johnson has been sidelined much of the year, but Hyleck Foster and Remi Watson have filled in well. The dup, along with Tony Pittman and Keion Davis gives the opponent a number of different looks on the ground.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Connecticut and Marshall both have strong defenses which has led to so much success for total bettors backing the under. Look for that to once again occur in this matchup, even with such a low posted total to contend with.
Even with such a strong defense against them, Marshall should be able to produce enough on offense behind Litton and its strong collection of running backs. Connecticut, on the other hand, has failed offensively against worse defenses than the Thundering Herd’s, and likely won’t succeed much at all in this spot either.
Marshall 23, Connecticut 16
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