The Pac-12 gets conference play started with a battle between Northern and Southern California when the Stanford Cardinal visits No. 6 USC. Stanford is still recovering from its opening day loss at Northwestern that dropped them from the top 25 while USC continues to roll with convincing wins over Sun Belt Conference competition. The past five meetings between these schools have all been decided by eight points or fewer, and even though there’s a clear cut favorite this season, could we see some more late-game drama?
ODDS
USC opened as a 9.5-point favorite and the spread spiked to an even -10. The total surfaced at 51.5. USC has struggled getting to the quarterback in two games while Stanford has plenty of inexperience in the secondary against a quality passing team. There are points out there giving the over plenty of value.
KEY MISMATCH
USC quarterback Cody Kessler padded his Heisman resume in a couple of body bag games against Arkansas State and Idaho. Kessler was outstanding in the lopsided wins, completing 78.9 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. After two games the senior boasts the second-best efficiency rating in the country behind Ole Miss newcomer Chad Kelly. He has a bunch of play-makers to choose from including JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has 14 receptions for 281 yards and three touchdowns in two games. In all, 16 different players have caught at least one pass this season. Stanford has yet to face an elite passing team this season, so its inexperienced secondary hasn’t been challenged. The Cardinal’s starting secondary includes a former wide receiver, Kodi Whitfield, and a former quarterback, Dallas Lloyd, at each safety spot.
KEY STAT
57.1 – Stanford’s red zone scoring efficiency. The Cardinal have just four scores and only two touchdowns in seven red zone trips this season to rank 121st nationally. USC opponents have entered the red zone just for times this season.
BETTING ANGLE
Stanford already suffered a big loss as a double-digit favorite, people are questioning David Shaw’s play-calling and USC has crushed two overmatched opponents. It looks like the perfect spot to grab the points with the Cardinal. Stanford has been a nine-point dog four times under Shaw and is a perfect 4-0 ATS with three SU wins, including as a 9.5-point underdog at USC in 2012. Watch for the Cardinal to muck this one up to try and keep it tight. USC has scored 47 points total in the last three games against Stanford and none of the last five have been decided by more than eight points.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We know the Trojans would likely win the Sun Belt Conference after blasting Arkansas State and Idaho. They get their first big test of the season against a Stanford team that we haven’t quite figured out yet. The Cardinal have been as erratic as their quarterback Kevin Hogan this season – down right awful in a road loss to Northwestern and spectacular in a big win over UCF. Stanford needs the good Hogan to show up Saturday for any chance of an upset win, and even then it’s highly unlikely. Stanford has too many holes on defense and won’t be able to match up with all of USC’s play-makers. If Kessler and Smith-Schuster don’t burn them in the passing game, Ronald Jones II, Tre Madden or Justin Davis will get them on the ground. And forgotten in all the hype about the offense is a defense that has plenty of talent and play-makers also. I can’t see Stanford winning this game, but the Cardinal always comes to play when facing SC, so it’s likely to be closer than people expect.
USC 34, Stanford 21
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Trojans were pegged as 9.5-point chalk while the total opened at 51.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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