The SEC has lost the last four Sugar Bowls it’s been in and Ole Miss is poised to change that. This game matters to the Rebels, who have way too much talent on both sides of the football to produce another 2015 Peach Bowl performance. Oklahoma State had everything set up perfectly, until the Cowboys stubbed their toe in their last two games.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ole Miss Rebels -6.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys +6.5
Over/Under 66
ODDS ANALYSIS
All signs point to a shootout with OSU ranked ninth in the country in scoring while Ole Miss is 12th. As a result, the total spiked to 68. The line also saw some movement going to Ole Miss -7. The Rebels have an average scoring margin of +17.2 for the season and are 7-5 ATS.
KEY MISMATCH
For all the defensive talent and all the future NFL starters across the board, the Ole Miss secondary had its share of problems this year. The stats are a bit misleading considering most teams had to keep throwing to try keeping up the pace, but the secondary was a problem against Arkansas, Auburn and even an LSU team that didn’t throw against anyone. The Rebels allowed 300 yards or more in four of their last six games, and they’re likely to get hit hard by the most dangerous passing game they’ve faced all year. The Cowboys did their part to keep pace in the wild Big 12 with 325 passing yards or more in each of their last six games with 21 touchdowns. The combination of Mason Rudolph for the heavy lifting and J.W. Walsh around the red zone has been efficient and effective, and against an Ole Miss team that is without its top defensive player in Robert Nkemdiche, should be able to crank out the yards in chunks.
KEY STAT
40.2 – Mississippi’s points per game average. The Rebels rank 12th nationally in scoring and go against Oklahoma State’s 85th-ranked scoring defense.
BETTING ANGLE
The Cowboys may have dropped their last two games, but they have been a boon for over bettors, playing above the closing total in each of their past six games. Oklahoma State was in perfect playoff position before closing out the NCAAF regular season with back-to-back losses to Baylor and Oklahoma, allowing a combined 103 points. OSU fit in well in the high-flying Big 12 this season, ranked seventh in the nation in passing yards and eighth in points per game. Rudolph and Walsh combined to throw 34 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions this season. Ole Miss returns to a New Year’s Six bowl for the second straight season and would like to play better than last year. The Rebels were embarrassed in a 42-3 loss to TCU in the Peach Bowl.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Oklahoma State should be proud of the season it had. The Cowboys were nowhere to be found in preseason polls, now they have a second-place regular-season finish in the Big 12. But that doesn’t mean they are prepared to win a New Year’s Six-caliber bowl. Besides struggling to stop good slot receivers, the Cowboys have also struggled to stop the run. It’s a weakness that was exposed by Oklahoma and Baylor. And it’s undoubtedly something that Hugh Freeze and his staff will look to expose. OSU’s passing attack is strong enough to put some pressure on Ole Miss’ 99th-ranked pass defense. However, if the Cowboys don’t find a way to control the game to some extent on the ground, it’s going to look a lot like their losses to OU and Baylor. Ole Miss has so many ways to hurt Oklahoma State on offense, and the Rebels’ defense is full of talent even without Nkemdiche. It’s hard to see OSU doing enough to come away with a win.
Ole Miss 41, Oklahoma State 31
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